Advantage Carrier: John McCown, Nick Bailey and Jimmy Suroto on $6bn Carrier Profits, 49.9% Reliability and a 2027 Overcapacity Warning

Container shipping has become "advantage carrier", according to John McCown of The McCown Report. US demand on the transpacific has been flat for a second year, yet spot rates have soared, and by John's count carriers made around $6bn in net income in the second quarter, seven times the first. So what can shippers actually do about it? In this container shipping special, produced with the support of Dimerco Express Group, Mike King is joined by three people who track this market more closely than most: John McCown, publisher of The McCown Report and author of Giants of the Sea Nick Bailey, co-founder of The Signal House and former lead analyst for logistics and services at A.P. Moller-Maersk Jimmy Suroto, founder of Nava Analytics & Research and a PSA veteran   We cover: Why rates have climbed so sharply while US demand stays flat, and what John calls "gotcha surcharges" Schedule reliability falling to 49.9% in August, the lowest since 2022 according to Sea-Intelligence, and why Nick says a global average hides your real exposure Port congestion in Asia, a typhoon season John calls the worst in a decade, the Middle East war, and why he believes carriers have learned to profit from disruption Why Asia-Europe and transpacific spot rates have gone in opposite directions Nick's argument that supply chains are now constrained by architecture, not capacity, and how to separate customer, defensive and distortion demand The long shift from West Coast to East and Gulf Coast ports, Jones Act waivers and US maritime policy COSCO, the FMC and the 9 November deadline for US port fees on China-linked ships Jimmy's 2027 forecast of 2% to 5% trade growth against BIMCO's forecast of 9% fleet growth, and what that wave of new ships could mean for rates Mentioned in this episode: ▶️ EXCLUSIVE: FMC Chair Laura DiBella on Trump's Maritime Dominance & Global Enforcement Powers https://youtu.be/GlZPTBKUzA4 Produced with the support of Dimerco Express Group (https://dimerco.com/), your trading partner connecting Asia with the US and beyond. If you enjoy the show, please like, subscribe and leave a comment telling us what you'd like us to cover next. We're working towards 10,000 YouTube subscribers this year, and every subscribe helps. Chapters: 00:00 Coming up 00:49 Welcome: Jimmy Suroto, Nick Bailey and John McCown 05:03 John McCown: flat US demand, soaring rates and "gotcha surcharges" 08:06 Nick Bailey: connected, cascading and compounding risk 11:04 Jimmy Suroto: what most container forecasters miss 12:10 Reliability falls to 49.9%: who is on time and who isn't 15:34 Port congestion hotspots and how carriers profit from disruption 18:40 Why transpacific and Asia-Europe spot rates split 21:27 Nick Bailey: architecture, not capacity, and why a bigger fleet won't save you 24:13 Customer, defensive and distortion demand on the transpacific 27:11 Efficiency or protection, and the headline rate trap 31:50 John McCown: advantage carrier, and the long shift to East Coast ports 34:27 Peak season, tariffs and chaos from the White House 37:30 Will container lines ever lose money again? 39:13 Jones Act waivers and the gap in US maritime policy 43:58 COSCO, the FMC and shots across the bow 47:30 Jimmy Suroto: back to baseline on the transpacific 49:25 Asia-Europe's new growth path 50:28 The Gulf and a 2% to 5% forecast for 2027 51:18 Why listen to Jimmy? His forecasting track record 51:58 A 9% bigger fleet: when does overcapacity bite? 53:35 John McCown on the 9 November port fee deadline 57:55 Nick Bailey: resilience versus efficiency in 2027 1:00:00 Thanks and goodbye #ContainerShipping #FreightBuyersClub #OceanFreight #Suppl...