politicalOD

Back after a year’s absence when although there was a lot of activity around the political world there wasn’t a lot of achievement or change. More of the same characterised politics in 2025, which followed the pattern of 2024 when through the year there was an increasing sense of discussing the same old same old. 2026 starts with elections looming over the next couple of years that will then set the runners and riders up for the General Election that must happen before 2029. A summary then of where we are.... A new leader enters the Northern Ireland scene, Starmer limping on, Trump an ever present 'presence'. Meanwhile a massively dissatisfied electorate and no political party managing to provide the sweet spot in politics - an offer that understands change, meets the challenge, and actually sounds coherent and confident enough to actually deliver growth.

While Labour promised change during the election it seems to have reverted to an old Labour ‘tax and spend” approach that is no recipe for the other thing promised ‘growth”. Hard to see in the recent budget how growth is going to be delivered if the overwhelming sense is that spend will be mostly in the stubbornly unproductive public sector. In the USA fair to say change is coming at the speed of a Musk rocket to Mars. There is no script. Nothing to suggest that politics in the USA will be changed in unimaginable ways. With Republicans, unusually, on top of Presidency, Senate and Congress this is not 2016. Whatever scale of political earthquake Trump represents in the USA the tremors are sure to be felt far and wide, not least in Europe. The Labour Party may be torn between a Trump policy that is favourable to the UK, at the same time as Labour wanting in its bones to segue towards the EU. In Northern Ireland the Protocol presents an added complication. A vote ‘consenting’ to the Protocol is to be held before the end of the year, yet the Protocol is barely implemented in significant ways. How can there be consent to something when the consequences are still unknown (maybe that is deliberate) and when Unionists trigger a review by not consenting, how is it possible to ‘review’ the Protocol that is not yet fully implemented?

In Northern Ireland it is forwards into the past with Mike Nesbitt; apparently set to be the next leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, again. In Westminster Starmer has made a stuttering start to his premiership, while Sunak and Farage seem to have gone AWOL as opposition. Seems nowhere is greatly blessed with coherent leadership, which lends itself to the disaffection with politicians; not something that will be quickly reversed on present trajectories. It has been a long wet and miserable summer, but in the words of Matt the cartoonist: "Keir Starmer was on the TV. Things will get worse before they get even worse." Labour's messaging shining through.

This election seems to be one where no-one wants to make an error and most parties make the case for ‘steady as it goes”. Policy has been overwhelmed by trivia and side-shows. The considerable challenges ahead barely mentioned. All this in a context where in elections in India, in Turkey, in Europe, old parties and Governments that have believed themselves to be ‘popular’ have suffered at the hands of a volatile and uneasy electorate. The candidates that seek to inspire, all too often don’t. In the UK, Labour will win an election without any great surge of enthusiasm from the voters, and in NI the two biggest parties seem to be hoping no-one notices their more recent failures. July the 5th brings who knows what. This podcast was recorded before the Trump/Biden debate. Another day...

A private financial briefing summed up Wednesday's announcement of an election on 4th July as Rishi Sunak looking at the whisky and revolver, and reaching for the whisky. Unlikely the outcome of the upcoming election for the Conservative Party will be a clean shot, it will be much more messy. This episode look broadly at the electoral landscape, and that both the Conservatives and Labour have one eye on Reform (Nigel Farage or not). In Scotland and in Wales the national runes seem similar. The Conservatives, the SNP and Welsh Labour have all been in power for a long time, the electorate is weary. In Northern Ireland the DUP and Sinn Fein have been the parties longest at the top, though all parties have their challenges. Perhaps the DUP and Sinn Fein are saved by the hapless nature of the others that would deign to knock them off their perch. The underlying mood of change may not be one of enthusiasm for any of the alternatives. The consequences of Brexit are still working their way along the political pathways. Our political leaders have nowhere to hide, no-one to blame. This election may just be a last gasp, a final flourish of bravado from the current establishment. The electorate is restless. Change is coming.