Saxo Market Call

Today - a look at how narrow the advance is in the US equity market that is taking the main indices close to their record highs and how this rhymes with past less-than-promising outcomes.. As well, we encourage market participants to keep bond yields and geopolitical headline risks on the radar - particularly for Europe if Trump announces an embargo on exporting diesel. This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Some believe that Trump shouldn't and even really shouldn't announce a diesel export embargo Beware bond holders and savers! Russell Napier is a must-listen on a long-form podcast on the coming financial repression as we move to build what must be built and do so while keeping governments funded. A Substack post on China's AI scene - very thorough. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, we covered the breaking news of Iran's possible overture on opening the Hormuz Strait, followed by a breakdown of the market's strong risk-on reaction to news of strong demand for Meta's Muse personal AI assistant app, especially the cluster of stocks that rallied the most on the news. Elsewhere, a look at the state of play in FX and interest rates, geopolitical news flow and much more. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Some color on the Meta-Amazon dispute, but you can do better if you want to understand the nature of the issue with an AI prompt like "How best to understand the nature of the Amazon-Meta dispute regarding the blocking of the Muse app and what is at stake in the big picture for the two companies that lies adjacent to this issue." Wired magazine says that Meta's Muse is better at surveilling than at helping. Sounds about right if you use the Charlie Munger maxim "Show me the incentive and I will show you the outcome." Just remember, for Meta, you are the product. A writer who uses AI for some writing tasks but not for most writing says that you should be very careful before allowing AI to write for you, which can turn people away from wanting to every wanting to read what you write again. (HT FTAlphaville.) Did the "last veil of Bank of England independence" just drop last Thursday? PML Macro thinks so. (HT FTAlphaville.) Taleb acolyte Spitznagel argues (once again) that we are in for one big burst higher before an absolutely massive wipeout. The important thing is to be prepared for either scenario. The German political situation is getting fraught, as covered by Eurointelligence.com (see September 18 post on "Goodbye CDU" - their posts not associated with specific URLs - there was an earlier post about France "A messy turn for the French presidential race" as well. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today a look at equity market divergences in evidence on Friday as many stocks were lower, perhaps on the fresh rise in bond yields, while many large cap and momentum stocks did well on the day and are off to a strong start this week. Elsewhere, USDJPY is the critical focus in FX, there is plenty to discuss on the geopolitical front, both in terms of oil supply risks and the Trump-Xi summit set for Thursday and much more. Today's pod hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links As we look at high petrol and record diesel prices in recent days, the WSJ covered the risk of a US refined product export embargo, how it would work and the potential price impacts. WSJ does a more than 30-minute deep dive on North Korea's secret US work force. Remarkable stuff. On the headlines trumpeting Saudi Arabia's quitting mBridge, China's cross-border currency platform, apparently there may far less of geopolitical import. Consider coverage on X from Endgame Macro and Luke Gromen as well as the most thorough take from Izabella Kaminska. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the steep JPY sell-off post Bank of Japan rate hike as the market was gunning for a firmer commitment to BoJ hiking and a stronger US dollar was already weighing in the background. Also, the BoE surprised slightly dovishly but moved to stabilize the long end of the UK yield curve. Also, we look at the pivotal situation for US stocks as we navigate triple witching ahead of next week's action. This and more on today's podcast, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy Links John's latest The FX Trader piece looking at the Bank of Japan reaction, Bank of England meeting and USDJPY technicals. The Real Eisman Playbook podcast poo-poohs the idea that AI security concerns are the real driver of Anthropic's call for a "slowdown". And FTAlphaville is out joining the dots with its latest AI cross-commitment diagram showing how all of the AI companies financing is interconnected. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Today, a look at the hawkish FOMC meeting yesterday, especially Fed Chair Warsh's positioning of the rate hike yesterday as merely removing accommodation, together with the sharp market reaction that has been surprisingly quick to unwind in places. Is this in respect of the incoming BoJ, the deflation of oil prices or because we are entering a new pivot zone for interest rates and possibly the US dollar? This and much more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links Meta's Zuckerberg isn't for the AI slowdown, prefers "evaluators" DeepQuarry questions Anthropic's pre-IPO claims of its profitability (first portion of post available for free) Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at [email protected] for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMERThis content is marketing material.Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.