How the Middle East Got So Screwed Up, with Simon Sebag Montefiore

“Let’s whisper it,” said historian Simon Sebag Montefiore. “The Trump blockade is working.” It can be hard to parse the state of play in the Middle East amid escalating rhetoric, but history gives us the necessary perspective to call balls and strikes in the present day. Today, the author of The Cauldron: The Making of the Modern Middle East joins School of War to discuss the forces that created the modern Middle East, why he thinks Trump’s strategy in Iran is working, and the growing rivalry between Israel and Turkey. “There is a real danger that Erdoğan will talk himself into a war with Israel,” he warns. 05:22 — The Middle East Is Not Monochrome 09:49 — Four Eras of the Modern Middle East 11:45 — The Problem With Nation-States 18:30 — Why 1979 Changed the Middle East 25:22 — Can Iran’s Revolution Survive Regime Change? 34:28 — Iran, Hormuz, and the Nuclear Question 39:57 — Could Iran’s Regime Reach a Breaking Point? 44:42 — Why Iran’s Regime Is Built for War 50:46 — Trump, Soleimani, and the 12-Day War 52:28 — Can the Iran Blockade Work? 54:23 — Israel’s Post–October 7 Grand Strategy 1:04:56 — Israel, Turkey, and Erdoğan’s Neo-Ottoman Ambitions This episode of School of War is brought to you by Maven Smart System, the builder platform for the American warfighter, fielded across the force and live on the frontline today. Learn more at palantir.com. This episode of School of War is also brought to you by Stratolaunch, a leading pure-play hypersonics company. Stratolaunch helps the U.S. and its allies move new hypersonic technologies from concept to capability, faster and cheaper. Learn more about how Stratolaunch is accelerating the future of hypersonics at Stratolaunch.com. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices