Final Stretch: Where the 2026 Midterms Stand

Send us Fan Mail Democrats lead in the House and in the national mood. The Senate could come down to one state, and turnout will decide it. Overview On the first day of early in-person voting in Michigan, Barack Obama spoke to a packed rally in Detroit. When the crowd booed, he gave the answer he has given for years: "Don't boo. Vote." That is the message of this episode. In the last episode before Election Day, Bella Goode takes stock of where the midterms stand. Democrats lead on almost every national measure, and forecasters now give them a strong chance of winning the House. But the Senate map is much harder. Democrats lead in most of the races we have followed this season, many by less than three points, and control could come down to a single state. What's in This Episode ● Trump's numbers. The president's approval rating is 38 percent in the Decision Desk HQ average, 65 percent of Americans say the country is on the wrong track, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 8 points. New polls from The New York Times and Siena College and from CNN put his approval at record lows for his second term, driven by the war with Iran, the cost of living and gas prices. ● The House. The Cook Political Report moved 48 House races toward Democrats in October, and every move went their way. Democrats are now favored in 220 seats, two more than they need, and Decision Desk HQ gives them a 79 percent chance of winning the House. Heavy Republican ad spending has not changed the polls, and data centers have become a campaign issue from Montana to Ohio. ● The Senate, race by race. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. We go through all nine races we have followed this season, from North Carolina and New Hampshire, where the Democrats lead clearly, to Kansas, where the race is within half a point. Along the way: the corruption story facing Susan Collins in Maine, the two Dan Sullivans on Alaska's ballot and the Justice Department lawsuit over them, new reporting on Ken Paxton in Texas, Ashley Hinson's shifting message on Trump in Iowa, and Roger Marshall's lawsuits against his former patients in Kansas. ● How to read the money. Groups on the Republican side have spent more than twice as much on Senate races as groups on the Democratic side. But super PACs pay higher ad rates, and Republicans spent 26 percent more on battleground ads while airing only 7 percent more of them. ● What could still go wrong. A polling firm admitted its polls were fake, and Republicans are using the scandal to tell voters to ignore bad news. The Justice Department is pressuring election officials in Utah and California, and about 7 in 10 Americans are not confident Trump will accept the results if his party loses. We also cover the protections in place, including the Election Protection hotline: 1-866-OUR-VOTE. ● Who's moving. Young voters, older voters, Hispanic voters and independents have all moved toward Democrats this fall, according to the latest Times and Siena poll. We look at which House seats will show how far those shifts go, and at Asian American voters, a group that gets less attention. ● What November 3rd comes down to. Early voting has passed 31 million. We explain what to watch on election night, why Maine and Alaska may take days or weeks to count, why Ohio voters should not mail ballots late, and what you can do in the final days. Why It Matters Polls can still miss in individual states, and this year the Senate will be decided mostly in Republican-leaning states. The national mood favors Democrats. The Senate map favors them only barely. The difference will come down to who votes. Make a plan, vote early if you can, and bring someone with you. Results may shift after this episode publishes. Bella will post final updates to these races on Substack on Sunday, November 1st. Support the show Bella Goode is a pseudonym — but the voice, research, and mission are all real. A Republican turned Democrat advocate in 2016, I was raised by middle class parents in Pennsylvania.  I’m a former marketing executive, entrepreneur, and lifelong learner with an MBA from Wharton and a Master’s in Psychology from Penn. I spent decades telling stories in the business world; now I use those skills to connect the dots in American politics. I’m here because the truth matters — and because the stakes have never been higher. Surviving Trump isn’t lighthearted. It’s clarity, evidence, and a fight for the future of our democracy. Follow my blog on Substack https://survivingtrumppodcast.substack.com