Four Seats to Take the Senate: Trump, the Money, and the Nine Races That Decide It

Send us Fan Mail FOUR SEATS TO TAKE THE SENATE Trump, the Money, and the Nine Races That Decide It Trump won Iowa by thirteen points in 2024. Today, more Iowans who voted in that election disapprove of him than approve — and the Iowa Senate race is close to even. That pattern repeats across the map. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate, and for the first time this cycle, the forecasters say they have a real path to get there. This episode maps the nine races that will decide control: where Trump's unpopularity is hurting Republican candidates, how Republican senators voted on his least popular decisions, and the flood of super PAC money Republicans are counting on to overcome it all. What's in This Episode Episode 4 is the first of two Senate episodes. This one covers the map and the forces shaping it. Next week covers the candidates. Trump's Standing in the Senate Race States Senate races are statewide, so no district lines protect a Republican candidate from how a state feels about the president. Among people who voted in 2024, Trump is now underwater in all nine states that will decide the Senate. In the five states he won by double digits, the effect is real but uneven. Ohio, which Trump won by eleven, now disapproves of him by eight points, and Sherrod Brown leads appointed Senator Jon Husted by four and a half. In Texas, which Trump won by fourteen, James Talarico leads Ken Paxton by about three — in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. History cuts both ways: Democrats gained forty-one House seats in 2018 and still lost two Senate seats, but in 2006, Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown won in states that usually favor Republicans. Where Democrats Can Win The nine races, sorted by what we know about the Republican candidates.  Three toss-ups feature a Republican senator running for reelection, so we measured their records against four Trump decisions most voters now reject: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the Hegseth and Kennedy confirmations, and this week's vote on limiting the war in Iran. Husted and Alaska's Dan Sullivan voted with Trump all four times. Maine's Susan Collins broke with him on three.  In the open-seat races, Iowa's Ashley Hinson voted against ending the war on September 15th — then called for its "immediate end" six days later.  And in North Carolina, the seat is open because Senator Thom Tillis voted against Trump's signature law and announced his retirement the next day. What Voters Are Feeling Tariffs and the war in Iran are reaching voters directly. After the Supreme Court struck down Trump's emergency tariffs in February, he turned to a law from 1930 to impose fifty percent tariffs on Canadian goods — and Canada answered with tariffs on American steel, aluminum and farm equipment.  Canada is Maine's largest trading partner and the top foreign market for Iowa's exports. Meanwhile, diesel hit a record six dollars and twenty-nine cents a gallon on September 14th, landing hardest on farm states. Trump says the election won't change his approach to the war. The Money.  A donor can give a Senate candidate thirty-five hundred dollars. The same donor can give a super PAC millions. That gap is reshaping these races.  A New York Times analysis found that only about one in ten dollars Republicans have reserved for ads in nine key Senate races comes from the candidates and the party — the rest comes from outside groups.  In Texas, Republican groups reserved ninety-four million dollars for September alone, against twenty million for Democrats. In Ohio, the crypto super PAC Fairshake is spending thirty million against Sherrod Brown, two years after spending forty million to defeat him. But money has limits: candidates buy airtime at the lowest rate by law, super PACs pay market rates, and in North Carolina, Republican groups have started pulling their ads. What the Forecasters Say How ratings differ from models, and what four major forecasters see now. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a fifty-five percent chance of winning the Senate, VoteHub fifty-eight. Cook calls it a true toss-up. The forecasters agree on Maine, Ohio, Texas and Iowa — and split sharply on New Hampshire. Plus the math: hold Michigan and New Hampshire, win North Carolina, and flip three of the five Republican-held toss-ups. Why It Matters This week, the Senate rejected limits on the war in Iran by a single vote. The Senate chosen in November could decide questions like that one differently — the war, Trump's nominees, any impeachment trial. This election is also a test of whether unlimited money can outweigh what voters live with every day. And nothing on this map is settled: a new ProPublica series, a New York Times investigation, fuel prices and a trade fight could all move these races before November 3rd. Support the show Bella Goode is a pseudonym — but the voice, research, and mission are all real. A Republican turned Democrat advocate in 2016, I was raised by middle class parents in Pennsylvania.  I’m a former marketing executive, entrepreneur, and lifelong learner with an MBA from Wharton and a Master’s in Psychology from Penn. I spent decades telling stories in the business world; now I use those skills to connect the dots in American politics. I’m here because the truth matters — and because the stakes have never been higher. Surviving Trump isn’t lighthearted. It’s clarity, evidence, and a fight for the future of our democracy. Follow my blog on Substack https://survivingtrumppodcast.substack.com