The Battle for the Senate: Nine Races, and the Candidates Who Could Make the Difference

Send us Fan Mail We have been fooled before. In 2016, the forecasters gave Hillary Clinton strong odds, and she lost. In 2020, Susan Collins trailed in nearly every public poll in Maine, and she won by almost nine points. Now Democrats lead the polling average in all nine races that will decide the Senate. Most of those leads are within a few points. This episode takes a clear look at the candidates in each race: who they are, where the race stands, each side's strengths and weaknesses, and what could decide it. It doesn't dismiss the good news for Democrats. It shows how much could still change before November 3rd. What's in This Episode Episode 5 is the second of two Senate episodes. Last week covered the map and the forces shaping it. This week covers the candidates. All polling averages are from Decision Desk HQ, checked on October 6th. North Carolina: Roy Cooper vs. Michael Whatley. Cooper leads by 9.6 points, Democrats' best chance to flip a seat. The seat opened when Thom Tillis voted against Trump's signature law and retired the next day. Whatley, a former Republican National Committee chair, has kept reporters at a distance, and Republican groups are pulling ads. But in 2020, Cal Cunningham led here too, and lost. New Hampshire: Chris Pappas vs. John E. Sununu. Pappas leads by 6.6 points for the seat Jeanne Shaheen is leaving. Sununu once wrote an op-ed headlined "Donald Trump is a Loser." Trump endorsed him anyway. Pappas has raised far more money, but Republicans are spending more on TV. Michigan: Abdul El-Sayed vs. Mike Rogers. El-Sayed leads by 3.7 points after surviving a record $30.6 million effort by AIPAC's super PAC in the primary. Rogers asked AIPAC to stay out of the general election. A Washington Post and Schar School poll found El-Sayed running behind his own party, especially among Black voters. Texas: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton. Talarico leads by 2.7 points in a state that hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. Paxton was impeached in 2023 and acquitted. An Associated Press review found he left about 730 workdays blank on his calendar. Republicans spent $122 million on ads for him in September, including ads PolitiFact rated false. Alaska: Mary Peltola vs. Dan Sullivan. Peltola leads by 2.7 points and beat Sullivan by eight in the August primary. A New York Times investigation into how she treats her staff came out on September 23rd. Her campaign points to the grief she lived through in 2023. Sullivan says he doesn't accept that explanation. Ohio: Sherrod Brown vs. Jon Husted. Brown leads by 2.3 points in his comeback bid. Husted called for the war in Iran to end, then voted against limiting it. Brown's main attack is data centers. A crypto super PAC has pledged nearly $30 million against him. And polls in Ohio have missed badly in recent elections. Iowa: Josh Turek vs. Ashley Hinson. Turek, a two-time Paralympic gold medalist, leads by 1.8 points in a state Trump won by thirteen. Hinson turned his missed votes in the legislature into a seven-figure ad. She now faces an ethics complaint over her husband's insurance lobbying role, which she calls false. Maine: Troy Jackson vs. Susan Collins. Jackson leads by 1.7 points. Collins broke with Trump on three of four major votes, but says she would vote for Brett Kavanaugh again. A ProPublica report raised questions about a defense contractor's donations. The newest polls disagree: one has the race tied, another has Jackson up four. Kansas: Adam Hamilton vs. Roger Marshall. Hamilton, a megachurch pastor, leads by just 0.2 points, the closest race of the nine. Marshall and his medical practice sued more than 700 patients over unpaid bills. Kansas hasn't elected a Democratic senator since 1932. The Fetterman Question. Democrats need a net gain of four seats. That assumes every senator who caucuses with them stays. John Fetterman was the only Democrat to vote against limiting the war in Iran. If he switched parties, Democrats would need five seats. Asked what he would do if the Senate came down to his vote, he said: "Wait till the midterms. See what I do." Why It Matters The Senate decides wars, judges, cabinet nominees and any impeachment trial. Democrats lead in every race on the map, but by margins that polls have missed before. Knowing the candidates, and the risks, is how we stay clear-eyed until November 3rd. Support the show Bella Goode is a pseudonym — but the voice, research, and mission are all real. A Republican turned Democrat advocate in 2016, I was raised by middle class parents in Pennsylvania.  I’m a former marketing executive, entrepreneur, and lifelong learner with an MBA from Wharton and a Master’s in Psychology from Penn. I spent decades telling stories in the business world; now I use those skills to connect the dots in American politics. I’m here because the truth matters — and because the stakes have never been higher. Surviving Trump isn’t lighthearted. It’s clarity, evidence, and a fight for the future of our democracy. Follow my blog on Substack https://survivingtrumppodcast.substack.com