Texas Real Estate Note Deal Breakdown: 18% LTV Non-Performing First Lien Case Study

Looking for real-world case studies on non-performing notes with massive equity? Welcome back to The Note Closers Show! In this episode, host Scott Carson breaks down a high-equity, low-LTV non-performing note deal in Conroe, Texas. Scott walks you through the initial evaluation, bidding numbers, foreclosure returns, and the exact exit strategies considered for this $90,000 cash-out refi first lien. Scott breaks down the math on a 四-bedroom, 3,600 sq. ft. home valued around $500,000 with an unpaid principal balance under $89,000 (roughly 18% LTV). He explains why an 80% UPB bid ($71,100) made mathematical sense, how foreclosure or hard-money refinance options would yield a 33%+ annualized return, and what happens to your yield if a borrower files Chapter 13 bankruptcy or enters a loan modification. Scott also shares why he ultimately lost the deal to a whole-tape buyer and outlines the key lessons every investor should know when bidding on multi-state asset pools. Key Topics Covered: Conroe, Texas Asset Profile: A four-bedroom, five-bath, 3,600 sq. ft. property valued near $500,000 with an Unpaid Principal Balance (UPB) of just $88,900 (~18% LTV). Loan Details: 30-year cash-out refi first lien at a 6.625% interest rate with monthly payments under $600, sitting 12 months delinquent. Bidding Strategy at 80% UPB: Offering $71,100 for the note to target a $24,000 gross foreclosure profit, creating an annualized return above 33% within 90 to 120 days. Chapter 13 Bankruptcy Math: Analyzing the conservative downside risk if a borrower files a 5-year repayment plan—yielding an $8,352 annual cash flow (~11.76% ROI). Single Asset vs. Whole Tape Bids: Why seller preference for full-pool buyers led to a whole-tape bid at 85% UPB across 7 states, including slow-foreclosure jurisdictions like New York, Maryland, and Pennsylvania. MLS & Foreclosure Signals: Tracking active listings on HAR/Zillow and recognizing when a pulled listing indicates loan modifications, forbearance agreements, or impending auction dates. Connect & Learn More: Book a 1-on-1 Strategy Call with Scott: talkwithscottcarson.com Register for the Virtual Note Buying Workshop: notebuyingfordummies.com Join the WCN Membership Community: noteumbrella.com Don't miss out on valuable market breakdown episodes—subscribe, rate, review, and share this video with a fellow investor today! Watch the Original VIDEO HERE! Book a Call With Scott HERE! Sign up for the next FREE One-Day Note Class HERE! Sign up for the WCN Membership HERE! Sign up for the next Note Buying For Dummies Workshop HERE! Love the show? Subscribe, rate, review, and share! Here’s How » Join the Note Closers Show community today: WeCloseNotes.com The Note Closers Show Facebook The Note Closers Show Twitter Scott Carson LinkedIn The Note Closers Show YouTube The Note Closers Show Vimeo The Note Closers Show Instagram We Close Notes Pinterest