Retail Christmas Forecast: What the Summer Numbers Really Tell Us

So how was the summer for retail in general, and more importantly, what does that tell us about what's ahead for Christmas? Hi, I'm retail strategist and founder of Resilient Retail Club, Catherine Erdly. This episode is brought to you by our sponsor Capify - business funding made simple. Find out more at capify.com Depending on what you read this summer, retail either collapsed or quietly got on with it. You'll have seen headlines about the retail apocalypse sitting next to reports of rising consumer spending, and the frustrating thing is that a lot of those contradictory things can be true at the same time. So in this episode I go through what the actual numbers say. Retail sales volumes were up. Footfall was down in six of the first seven months of the year. Online hit its highest share of spending since April 2021. Clothing had its strongest month since September 2025, while furniture and computing were left on the shelf. Consumer confidence climbed to a 21-month high, and June's early promotions appear to have pulled demand forward out of July in exactly the way Black Friday pulls it forward out of December. Put together, that gives us a picture of a customer who hasn't stopped spending at all. They've become selective, occasion-led and comfortable flipping between your website and your shop door depending on the weather and their mood. Which is genuinely encouraging going into Christmas, because Christmas is planned, occasion-led spending. It just means you can't assume that customers spending in general translates into customers spending with you. I finish with the four things I'd want you to do before November: don't plan for disaster, get your entry and mid price points right, stop relying on footfall alone, and keep enough flexibility in your stock budget to react to what's actually selling. Chapters 00:00 How was the summer for retail, really? 02:51 What the ONS sales numbers actually showed 05:26 Why footfall fell but spending didn't 07:18 Online's strongest share since 2021 10:00 Small treats, rising confidence and the October budget 12:56 Four things to do before Christmas Resources and links Free Christmas guide and week-by-week planner: https://www.resilientretailclub.com/christmas Episode 316, Retail Christmas Strategy: Why August Decides December: https://www.resilientretailclub.com/podcast-episode/christmas-planning-for-independent-retailers/ All episodes of the Resilient Retail Game Plan: https://www.resilientretailclub.com/podcast/ Connect with me on LinkedIn: https://uk.linkedin.com/in/catherineerdly The Resilient Retail Game Plan shares retail industry trends, insights, and best practices for the retailer who's serious about building something that lasts. New episodes every Thursday morning. Mentioned in this episode: Capify