The Retail Razor: Data Blades Podcast

Arizona State University’s Brett Duarte on AI supply chain strategy, part 3: AI in logistics, control towers, network design, and supply chain governance. Logistics is a $10 trillion industry once you add up freight, transportation, warehousing, 3PL and 4PL. Brett Duarte puts that number on the table in the first four minutes, and it reframes every AI conversation that follows. This is how AI in logistics either earns its budget or quietly doesn't. This is part three, the final episode of our AI supply chain strategy series with Clinical Associate Professor Brett Duarte of Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business. We covered procurement in part one and operations in part two. Here we finish with logistics, then widen the lens to the infrastructure and supply chain governance that everything else sits on. Brett splits AI in logistics into tactical and strategic work. Tactical includes route optimization and ETA prediction, capacity and load optimization so containers and trailers run full, and disruption management through control towers that sense a problem and act on it. Strategic means network design: where distribution centers go, how big their footprint needs to be, where the coverage gaps are, and whether carbon emissions can come down at the same time to address sustainability. Then Casey pushes him on the part executives keep asking about. Trusted data sources. Platform choices. Agent-to-agent protocolsand model context protocol. Managing a growing population of agents and their lifecycle. And the ROI roadmap with KPIs that leadership will accept. Brett's line on supply chain governance is the one worth writing down: it's a business capability, and companies that treat it as an IT project pay for it later. What you'll learn in this episode. Why the $10 trillion logistics number changes how you size an AI business case. Where AI in logistics pays off first, and which use case to build before all the others. The four tactical AI use cases Brett teaches first, and why disruption management is the one to start with. How a control tower agent pulls outside signals on weather, earthquakes and disruption events, then decides which orders are affected. What "citizen developers" can build inside operations, and the guardrails they need. The network design questions AI answers: DC placement, footprint, service versus cost, coverage gaps, consolidation. Why sustainability documentation is turning into a competitive edge instead of a spreadsheet chore. Brett's case that supply chain governance is a business capability, not an IT project. How to build an AI ROI roadmap, pick operational and financial KPIs, and benchmark against your market. The AI-native platform versus bolt-on-to-legacy decision, with the tradeoffs on both sides. The program behind the series. Each episode in this series follows one day of ASU's AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy Executive Program, October 5 to 7 in Tempe. This episode is day three. Seats are limited for the fall session. Register with the link below and ID code RETAILRAZORASU for $1,500 off. Register at https://specialevents.asu.edu/878064 with ID Code retailrazorasu for $1,500 off Listen to all three parts in the series. The series is built to be heard together. Part 1 covers procurement, part 2 covers operations, part 3 covers logistics plus infrastructure and supply chain governance. Start at part one if you're arriving late. • Part 1, Procurement (S2E13): https://go.retailrazor.com/DBs2e13 • Part 2, Operations (S2E14): https://go.retailrazor.com/DBs2e14 Support Our Sponsors. There’s still time to join us at RetailClub AI Festival. From the founders of Shoptalk and Groceryshop, RetailClub AI Festival brings together 2,000 industry leaders from September 22 to 24 for three days fully outdoors in Huntington Beach focused entirely on how AI is transforming retail. Hear from 150 leaders shaping how AI is being used across the industry, explore the technologies changing how retail works, and connect with senior leaders from across retail, brands, technology and investment. Late registration is now available at retailclub.com/retail-razor-podcast. We’ll see you in Huntington Beach! W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. ASU is a leading public research university and its W. P. Carey School of Business is the largest in the United States. AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy is a 3-day executive program running October 5-7, built by the #2-ranked Supply Chain Management department. The program is designed for senior leaders setting AI strategy across procurement, logistics, and operations. Register at https://specialevents.asu.edu/878064 with ID Code retailrazorasu for $1,500 off. Subscribe & Follow. Love this episode? Drop us a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Goodpods. Don't forget to like and subscribe to The Retail Razor: Data Blades for more episodes on customer experience, retail marketing, AI in retail, and data‑driven transformation! Subscribe to the Retail Razor Podcast Network: https://retailrazor.com/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://retailrazor.substack.com Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://go.retailrazor.com/utube About Our Guest. Brett Duarte, Ph.D. https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettduarte/ Arizona State University | W. P. Carey School of Business NASPO Department of Supply Chain Management Clinical Associate Professor Senior Faculty Co-Director – MSBA wpcarey.asu.edu | research.wpcarey.asu.edu Brett Duarte is a Clinical Associate Professor in the NASPO Department of Supply Chain Management at Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business, the largest business school in the United States with more than 25,000 students. He is senior faculty co-director of the school's Master of Science in Business Analytics program and assistant chair for graduate programs in supply chain. ASU's supply chain management program is ranked #2 in the country by U.S. News and World Report. Brett is on the faculty teaching the AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy Executive Program this October. Chapters (00:00) Teaser (00:35) Show Intro (03:31) The $10 Trillion Logistics Problem AI Is About to Solve (04:42) Inside Amazon & DHL's AI Playbook (05:55) How AI Agents Catch Supply Chain Disasters Before They Happen (08:20) The Network Design Mistake Costing You Millions (09:49) Why Sustainability Data Is Your Next Competitive Edge (11:27) The Governance Mistake That Could Sink Your AI Strategy (13:54) How to Actually Measure AI's ROI in Your Supply Chain (16:36) Show Close About your Hosts Helping you cut through the clutter in retail data insights: Ricardo Belmar is an NRF Top Retail Voice for 2025 and a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2021 – 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him a Top 10 Thought Leader in Retail and eCommerce, a Top 25 Thought Leader in Careers, a Top 50 Thought Leader in Agentic AI, AGI and Management, and a Top 100 Thought Leader in AI Ethics, Marketing, Digital Transformation andTransformation. Thinkers 360 also named him a Top Digital Voice for 2024 and 2025. He is an advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformation and the Retail Cloud Alliance. He was most recently the partner marketing leader for retail & consumer goods in the Americas at Microsoft. Casey Golden, is the North America Leader for Retail & Consumer Goods at CI&T, and CEO of Luxlock. She is a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2023 - 2026, and Retail Cloud Alliance advisory council member. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, Casey is obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer and is slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech! Music Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Tech Lore from the album Beat Hype, written by Heston Mimms, published by Imuno.

Arizona State University's Brett Duarte on AI supply chain strategy, part 2: demand forecasting, inventory optimization, and safety stock Get your forecast wrong in one direction and you've got empty shelves. Get it wrong the other way and you've got a warehouse full of product nobody wants. Professor Brett Duarte pointed to Amazon reporting a 35% reduction in stockouts from its AI inventory tools. So which parts of the AI promise hold up in supply chain operations? Season 2, Episode 14 of Data Blades continues our 3-part mini-series with Professor Brett Duarte of Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business. The series follows ASU's AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy executive program running October 5 to 7 on the Tempe campus. Part 1 covered procurement. Part 2 moves downstream into operations, where a forecast turns into inventory and inventory turns into either a sale or a markdown. Brett walks through the AI demand forecasting toolkit layer by layer: extrapolation from historical data, regression and econometric models, machine learning for nonlinear patterns, and large language models acting as a reasoning layer on top. That top layer handles what he calls narrative synthesis and multi-source fusion, pulling qualitative signals like a Wall Street Journal article on consumer sentiment, the consumer price index, or inflation data into the forecast. Casey admits capacity planning in ERP often felt like "pretend functionality." Ricardo describes the retail version of real time: however fast someone can update the spreadsheet. Then Brett turns to inventory optimization, where AI moves teams off static reorder points and monthly forecasts. He describes an agent that senses a demand spike, raises a purchase order, checks the supplier contract for budget limits and terms, sends routine orders automatically, and routes important ones to a human. He closes on multi-echelon inventory optimization and why the location of your safety stock matters as much as the amount. What you'll learn in this episode. Why AI demand forecasting and inventory optimization are two halves of one decision [00:03:43] How AI demand forecasting stacks extrapolation, regression, machine learning, and LLMs [00:06:14] What narrative synthesis and multi-source fusion mean for a forecast that can read the news [00:07:07] Why forecasting is moving from Python code into the hands of managers and executives [00:08:31] How AI agents replace the days of manual spreadsheet updates behind a forecast [00:09:43] How AI agents adjust safety stock and raise purchase orders, and when a human steps in [00:12:14] What multi-echelon inventory optimization is and why it's a strategic decision [00:13:10] Next Episode. Part 3 finishes the map with logistics: routing, network design, control towers, last mile, and what AI can do when a shipment goes sideways. Then we widen the lens to the question every executive eventually asks their supply chain team: what's the infrastructure, the governance, and the ROI case before anything gets funded? And we'll bring procurement, operations, and logistics together as one strategy. Follow Data Blades so you don't miss it. Support Our Sponsors. There’s still time to join us at RetailClub AI Festival. From the founders of Shoptalk and Groceryshop, RetailClub AI Festival brings together 2,000 industry leaders from September 22 to 24 for three days fully outdoors in Huntington Beach focused entirely on how AI is transforming retail. Hear from 150 leaders shaping how AI is being used across the industry, explore the technologies changing how retail works, and connect with senior leaders from across retail, brands, technology and investment. Late registration is now available at retailclub.com/retail-razor-podcast. We’ll see you in Huntington Beach! W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. ASU is a leading public research university and its W. P. Carey School of Business is the largest in the United States. AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy is a 3-day executive program running October 5-7, built by the #2-ranked Supply Chain Management department. The program is designed for senior leaders setting AI strategy across procurement, logistics, and operations. Register at https://specialevents.asu.edu/878064 with ID Code retailrazorasu for $1,500 off. Subscribe & Follow. Love this episode? Drop us a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Goodpods. Don't forget to like and subscribe to The Retail Razor: Data Blades for more episodes on customer experience, retail marketing, AI in retail, and data‑driven transformation! Subscribe to the Retail Razor Podcast Network: https://retailrazor.com/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://retailrazor.substack.com Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://go.retailrazor.com/utube About Our Guest. Brett Duarte, Ph.D. https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettduarte/ Arizona State University | W. P. Carey School of Business NASPO Department of Supply Chain Management Clinical Associate Professor Senior Faculty Co-Director – MSBA wpcarey.asu.edu | research.wpcarey.asu.edu Brett Duarte is a Clinical Associate Professor in the NASPO Department of Supply Chain Management at Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business, the largest business school in the United States with more than 25,000 students. He is senior faculty co-director of the school's Master of Science in Business Analytics program and assistant chair for graduate programs in supply chain. ASU's supply chain management program is ranked #2 in the country by U.S. News and World Report. Brett is on the faculty teaching the AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy Executive Program this October. Chapters (00:00) Teaser (00:27) Show Intro (03:25) Welcome Back Professor Brett Duarte (05:03) Why Forecasting Matters (06:14) Modern AI Forecasting Toolkit (09:43) Real Time Agents In Practice (10:29) Inventory Management Focus (12:14) Dynamic Replenishment Workflows (13:10) Strategic Multi Echelon Optimization (14:11) Wrap Up And Next Episode (15:28) Show Close About your Hosts Helping you cut through the clutter in retail data insights: Ricardo Belmar is an NRF Top Retail Voice for 2025 and a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2021 – 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him a Top 10 Thought Leader in Retail and eCommerce, a Top 25 Thought Leader in Careers, a Top 50 Thought Leader in Agentic AI, AGI and Management, and a Top 100 Thought Leader in AI Ethics, Marketing, Digital Transformation andTransformation. Thinkers 360 also named him a Top Digital Voice for 2024 and 2025. He is an advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformation and the Retail Cloud Alliance. He was most recently the partner marketing leader for retail & consumer goods in the Americas at Microsoft. Casey Golden, is the North America Leader for Retail & Consumer Goods at CI&T, and CEO of Luxlock. She is a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2023 - 2026, and Retail Cloud Alliance advisory council member. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, Casey is obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer and is slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech! Music Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Tech Lore from the album Beat Hype, written by Heston Mimms, published by Imuno.

Arizona State University’s Brett Duarte on AI supply chain strategy, part 1: procurement, supplier risk, and contract intelligence Boston Consulting Group found AI leaders doubling revenue on specific projects and cutting costs 40 to 50%. McKinsey found that under 1% of organizations that adopted AI have seen enterprise-wide impact. The distance between those two numbers is the whole job of an AI supply chain strategy. Season 2, Episode 13 of Data Blades opens a 3-part mini-series with Professor Brett Duarte of Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business, home to the #2 ranked supply chain program in the country. The series follows ASU's AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy executive program running October 5 to 7 on the Tempe campus: procurement in part 1, operations in part 2, logistics in part 3. Today we start where the money starts. Brett names the two things supply chain leaders keep hitting. First, infrastructure: siloed systems, data quality problems, fragmentation, and AI "slapped on the legacy systems" so nobody can see the supply chain end to end. Second, adoption, which is just whether employees pick the tools up and use them. Then he gets specific about agentic AI in procurement. Agents are a digital workforce that can plan, reason, act, and learn. A procurement agent pulls structured and unstructured data, reads a new tariff into a pricing picture, runs sentiment analysis on news about a supplier or a region, and automates the supplier back-and-forth that used to live in email threads and manual ERP lookups. A contract agent reads the whole contract portfolio, flags what has expired or is up for renewal, checks terms against real purchase orders and delivery performance, and schedules the renegotiation conversation with evidence attached. Casey and Ricardo also get into what supplier scorecards and Kraljic matrix segmentation look like when an agent maintains them, and why ASU built an AI lab with a supply chain digital twin to watch how agents behave when a disruption hits. What you'll learn in this episode. Why AI pilots keep working while enterprise-wide impact stalls, and the two blockers Brett hears most from supply chain leaders [00:04:59] How ASU's three-part mission shows up as an AI lab and a supply chain digital twin for testing agents against simulated disruptions [00:07:21] What the 3-day AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy program covers, day by day, and who it's built for [00:09:15] Agentic AI explained: plan, reason, act, learn, and the maturity curve from AI assistant to automated workflows to a frontier firm [00:12:16] Why executives build their own agent in the room, then watch three agents talk to each other through a simulated disruption [00:14:08] Where agentic AI in procurement lands first: tactical work like supplier identification and purchase orders, strategic work like spend analytics, category management, and supplier risk [00:15:22] How a contract agent handles renewals, terms violations, delivery misses, and supplier scorecards, and where the Kraljic matrix fits [00:17:12] Next Episode. Part 2 moves downstream into operations: forecasting, inventory, and the gap between a model that predicts well and a business that acts on it. If procurement is where you decide what to buy, operations is where you find out whether you got it right. Taken together, the three parts cover a full AI supply chain strategy from the front end to the back. Follow Data Blades so you don't miss it. Support Our Sponsors. There’s still time to join us at RetailClub AI Festival. From the founders of Shoptalk and Groceryshop, RetailClub AI Festival brings together 2,000 industry leaders from September 22 to 24 for three days fully outdoors in Huntington Beach focused entirely on how AI is transforming retail. Hear from 150 leaders shaping how AI is being used across the industry, explore the technologies changing how retail works, and connect with senior leaders from across retail, brands, technology and investment. Late registration is now available at retailclub.com/retail-razor-podcast. We’ll see you in Huntington Beach! W. P. Carey School of Business, Arizona State University. ASU is a leading public research university and its W. P. Carey School of Business is the largest in the United States. AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy is a 3-day executive program running October 5-7, built by the #2-ranked Supply Chain Management department. The program is designed for senior leaders setting AI strategy across procurement, logistics, and operations. Register at https://specialevents.asu.edu/878064 with ID Code retailrazorasu for $1,500 off. Subscribe & Follow. Love this episode? Drop us a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Goodpods. Don't forget to like and subscribe to The Retail Razor: Data Blades for more episodes on customer experience, retail marketing, AI in retail, and data‑driven transformation! Subscribe to the Retail Razor Podcast Network: https://retailrazor.com/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://retailrazor.substack.com Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://go.retailrazor.com/utube About Our Guest. Brett Duarte, Ph.D. https://www.linkedin.com/in/brettduarte/ Arizona State University | W. P. Carey School of Business NASPO Department of Supply Chain Management Clinical Associate Professor Senior Faculty Co-Director – MSBA wpcarey.asu.edu | research.wpcarey.asu.edu Brett Duarte is a Clinical Associate Professor in the NASPO Department of Supply Chain Management at Arizona State University's W. P. Carey School of Business, the largest business school in the United States with more than 25,000 students. He is senior faculty co-director of the school's Master of Science in Business Analytics program and assistant chair for graduate programs in supply chain. ASU's supply chain management program is ranked #2 in the country by U.S. News and World Report. Brett is on the faculty teaching the AI-Enabled Supply Chain Strategy Executive Program this October. Chapters (00:00) Teaser (00:29) Show Intro (04:18) Welcome & Introductions (04:59) AI Adoption Challenges (07:21) ASU's Three-Part Mission (09:15) AI Enablement Program Overview (12:14) Understanding Agentic AI (14:08) Building Agents Hands-On (15:22) Procurement & Sourcing Use Cases (17:12) Contract Management & Supplier Risk (19:57) Wrapping Up Part One (20:44) Show Close About your Hosts Helping you cut through the clutter in retail data insights: Ricardo Belmar is an NRF Top Retail Voice for 2025 and a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2021 – 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him a Top 10 Thought Leader in Retail and eCommerce, a Top 25 Thought Leader in Careers, a Top 50 Thought Leader in Agentic AI, AGI and Management, and a Top 100 Thought Leader in AI Ethics, Marketing, Digital Transformation andTransformation. Thinkers 360 also named him a Top Digital Voice for 2024 and 2025. He is an advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformation and the Retail Cloud Alliance. He was most recently the partner marketing leader for retail & consumer goods in the Americas at Microsoft. Casey Golden, is the North America Leader for Retail & Consumer Goods at CI&T, and CEO of Luxlock. She is a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2023 - 2026, and Retail Cloud Alliance advisory council member. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, Casey is obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer and is slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech! Music Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Tech Lore from the album Beat Hype, written by Heston Mimms, published by Imuno.

S2E12 NRA Chief Economist Dr. Chad Moutray on what restaurant technology really does to staffing Everyone assumes restaurant automation means fewer jobs. The National Restaurant Association’s data says 94% of operators cut zero: their technology investments over the past two to three years did not permanently eliminate a single role. In the finale of our three-part hiring and staffing series, Dr. Chad Moutray, Chief Economist and SVP of Industry Research and Knowledge at the National Restaurant Association, joins Ricardo Belmar and Casey Golden to close the loop on restaurant technology and restaurant staffing. We started our 3-part mini-series with a cooling labor market, moved through the cost of being short-staffed, and covered how to keep your best people. This episode answers the question every operator is asking: where does technology fit? Chad walks through where restaurant technology delivers the clearest wins, from cutting hiring time from weeks to a few days, to chatbots that screen and schedule interviews at 2 a.m. while a manager sleeps, to onboarding and retention tools that keep new hires on the floor faster. He is candid about the tradeoffs too: new tools usually add work before they save it, and teams often need reskilling, so the human touch stays at the center. What you'll learn in this episode: Why 94% of operators kept every role after investing in restaurant technology How the 2.8% full-service profit margin drives every restaurant staffing decision Where technology cuts restaurant hiring from weeks to days How chatbots and self-scheduling meet applicants where they are Why the human touch is the one thing automation can’t replace in hospitality Resource Links HIRING & STAFFING How Onboarding, Managers, & Technology Drive Restaurant ROI.https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/research-insight-workforce-hiring-staffing/ State of the Restaurant Industry 2026. https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/state-of-the-industry/ Support Our Sponsor This Episode is Brought to You By RetailClub. Retail Club AI Festival, September 22–24 in Huntington Beach. Join 2,000 retail leaders for a fully outdoor, beachside deep dive into how AI is reshaping retail. Qualified retailers and brands can attend with free tickets and up to $1,250 in travel reimbursement. Head to retailclub.com to learn more. https://retailclub.com/retail-razor-podcast Subscribe & Follow Love this episode? Drop us a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Goodpods. Don't forget to like and subscribe to The Retail Razor: Data Blades for more episodes on customer experience, retail marketing, AI in retail, and data‑driven transformation! Subscribe to the Retail Razor Podcast Network: https://retailrazor.com/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://retailrazor.substack.com Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://go.retailrazor.com/utube About Our Guest Dr Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE, https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadmoutray/ Chief Economist & Sr Vice President of Industry Research & Knowledge National Restaurant Association, https://www.restaurant.org/ Chad Moutray is senior vice president for research & knowledge and chief economist at the National Restaurant Association, where he leads economic analysis, data-driven insights, and thought leadership for business leaders in the restaurant and foodservice industry. A recognized expert on economic trends, he frequently shares his perspectives through professional presentations, media interviews, and industry reports. Dr. Moutray is an adjunct professor at George Washington University, where he teaches econometrics in the M.S. in the applied economics program. He has held leadership roles in several professional organizations, including serving as chair of the Conference of Business Economists and as a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. He is also a past president and chairman of the National Economists Club, the Washington, D.C. chapter of NABE. In 2026, he will begin serving on the board of trustees of the John Leland Center for Theological Studies in Arlington, VA. Chapters (00:00) Teaser (00:40) Show Intro (02:48) Welcome Back Chad Moutray! (03:38) Robots Taking Jobs (04:11) Tech Boosts Efficiency (06:20) Hiring Process Wins (08:18) Chatbots and Scheduling (09:29) Onboarding and Retention (10:53) Hospitality vs Automation (12:34) Employee Buy In (14:24) Big Takeaways 2026 (16:58) Where to Find Report (17:48) Show Close About your Hosts Helping you cut through the clutter in retail data insights: Ricardo Belmar is an NRF Top Retail Voice for 2025 and a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2021 – 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him a Top 10 Thought Leader in Retail and eCommerce, a Top 25 Thought Leader in Careers, a Top 50 Thought Leader in Agentic AI, AGI and Management, and a Top 100 Thought Leader in AI Ethics, Marketing, Digital Transformation andTransformation. Thinkers 360 also named him a Top Digital Voice for 2024 and 2025. He is an advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformation and the Retail Cloud Alliance. He was most recently the partner marketing leader for retail & consumer goods in the Americas at Microsoft. Casey Golden, is the North America Leader for Retail & Consumer Goods at CI&T, and CEO of Luxlock. She is a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2023 - 2026, and Retail Cloud Alliance advisory council member. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, Casey is obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer and is slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech! Music Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Tech Lore from the album Beat Hype, written by Heston Mimms, published by Imuno.

S2E11 NRA Chief Economist Dr. Chad Moutray on retention, managers, and the first 90 days A new restaurant hire costs you money until roughly day 32. For a manager, it’s 72. If they walk before that, you didn’t just lose a person, you lost the investment. In Part 2 of our Hiring & Staffing series, Dr. Chad Moutray, Chief Economist at the National Restaurant Association, breaks down the numbers behind restaurant employee retention - when a new hire becomes “net positive,” why the first 90 days decide everything, and how one weak manager can pull a whole team out the door. We get into the 31.8-day math for hourly staff, the 72.2-day math for managers, and why restaurant manager retention is the highest-leverage bet an operator on a tight budget can make. What you'll learn in this episode: What “net positive” really means, and the day a hire starts paying off The 31.8 vs 72.2-day gap between hourly staff and managers Why the first 30 to 90 days is the highest-turnover window The leadership traits that drive restaurant employee retention Where to invest first when the budget is tight (hint: onboarding) A scavenger-hunt onboarding idea one operator actually uses Next episode: we close the series on how technology is reshaping restaurant hiring and training, without replacing the human touch that makes hospitality work. Resource Links HIRING & STAFFING How Onboarding, Managers, & Technology Drive Restaurant ROI.https://www.restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/research-insight-workforce-hiring-staffing/ State of the Restaurant Industry 2026. https://restaurant.org/research-and-media/research/research-reports/state-of-the-industry/ Support Our Sponsor This Episode is Brought to You By RetailClub. Retail Club AI Festival, September 22–24 in Huntington Beach. Join 2,000 retail leaders for a fully outdoor, beachside deep dive into how AI is reshaping retail. Qualified retailers and brands can attend with free tickets and up to $1,250 in travel reimbursement. Head to retailclub.com to learn more. https://retailclub.com/retail-razor-podcast Subscribe & Follow Love this episode? Drop us a five-star rating and review on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or Goodpods. Don't forget to like and subscribe to The Retail Razor: Data Blades for more episodes on customer experience, retail marketing, AI in retail, and data‑driven transformation! Subscribe to the Retail Razor Podcast Network: https://retailrazor.com/ Subscribe to our Newsletter: https://retailrazor.substack.com Subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://go.retailrazor.com/utube About Our Guest Dr Chad Moutray, Ph.D., CBE, https://www.linkedin.com/in/chadmoutray/ Chief Economist & Sr Vice President of Industry Research & Knowledge National Restaurant Association, https://www.restaurant.org/ Chad Moutray is senior vice president for research & knowledge and chief economist at the National Restaurant Association, where he leads economic analysis, data-driven insights, and thought leadership for business leaders in the restaurant and foodservice industry. A recognized expert on economic trends, he frequently shares his perspectives through professional presentations, media interviews, and industry reports. Dr. Moutray is an adjunct professor at George Washington University, where he teaches econometrics in the M.S. in the applied economics program. He has held leadership roles in several professional organizations, including serving as chair of the Conference of Business Economists and as a board member of the National Association for Business Economics. He is also a past president and chairman of the National Economists Club, the Washington, D.C. chapter of NABE. In 2026, he will begin serving on the board of trustees of the John Leland Center for Theological Studies in Arlington, VA. Chapters (00:00) Teaser (00:30) Show Intro (02:41) Welcome Back, Dr Chad Moutray! (03:47) What Net Positive Means (05:28) The 32 and 72 Day Math (07:00) Managers Make or Break Teams (08:41) Surviving the First 90 Days (10:14) Leadership Traits That Retain (12:33) Where to Invest First (13:26) Onboarding Ideas and Scavenger Hunt (15:01) Show Close About your Hosts Helping you cut through the clutter in retail data insights: Ricardo Belmar is an NRF Top Retail Voice for 2025 and a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2021 – 2026. Thinkers 360 has named him a Top 10 Thought Leader in Retail and eCommerce, a Top 25 Thought Leader in Careers, a Top 50 Thought Leader in Agentic AI, AGI and Management, and a Top 100 Thought Leader in AI Ethics, Marketing, Digital Transformation andTransformation. Thinkers 360 also named him a Top Digital Voice for 2024 and 2025. He is an advisory council member at George Mason University’s Center for Retail Transformation and the Retail Cloud Alliance. He was most recently the partner marketing leader for retail & consumer goods in the Americas at Microsoft. Casey Golden, is the North America Leader for Retail & Consumer Goods at CI&T, and CEO of Luxlock. She is a RETHINK Retail Top Retail Expert from 2023 - 2026, and Retail Cloud Alliance advisory council member. After a career on the fashion and supply chain technology side of the business, Casey is obsessed with the customer relationship between the brand and the consumer and is slaying franken-stacks and building retail tech! Music Includes music provided by imunobeats.com, featuring Tech Lore from the album Beat Hype, written by Heston Mimms, published by Imuno.