Throughput (TC Energy)

In November 2024 TC Energy's Investor Day deck committed to six to seven billion dollars a year of net capital, no equity issuance, and a leverage path with years on it: about 4.9 times in 2025, about 4.7 in 2026, then held under a 4.75 upper limit. By July 2026 the chief executive was talking about six to eight billion of sanctions in a single year, an origination backlog of more than twenty billion, two-thirds of it power generation, and a demand forecast raised twice in eight months to 51 Bcf a day. The number on the leverage promise is the same; the year is gone. This second edition scores the first, which its reader found not that helpful, and then does what it did not: takes the demand assumption apart into four regimes (West Coast LNG, US power, Mexico, nuclear) and says which one the plan rests on; works the deck's own sensitivities to show what an extra billion of sanctions does to leverage; and sets the 2025 corporate scorecard and PSU design beside the public commitments for a director on both Audit and Human Resources. Three ranked questions and four tests dated to the early-November print. Produced from the public record only. Chapters 0:00 Cold open: six to seven declared, six to eight sanctioned; the leverage year that vanished; forty to forty-five to fifty-one 1:40 The first edition, scored, and the best fact for management 3:31 The shape: November 2024 against July 2026 5:40 Four regimes, and which one carries the plan 8:12 Anatomy of the cap: the deck's sensitivities and the five billion of room 9:56 What the pay plan measures 12:08 The Street and the tape 13:29 Three questions, four tests, what was flagged, sign-off