Optimist Economy

Over a year into the administration's anti-immigration agenda, we’re seeing the economic fallout. For the first time in at least 50 years, estimates are that we lost immigrants on net; far fewer than usual arrived and a somewhat higher than usual number left. But if anyone benefited from that shift, it wasn’t U.S.-born workers. Even against the backdrop of our weak labor market, foreign-born workers now have slightly lower unemployment rates and higher labor market participation than they did two years ago. Their wages have also ticked up. Meanwhile, reduced population growth has thrown the country’s economic benchmarks into chaos, making it harder to interpret job creation, GDP, and the health of the labor market. Chapters: 00:00:50 Announcements: Send us your anticipated Thanksgiving dinner fights 00:01:45 Retcon: Consumer sentiment update, auto-enrollment for Trump Accounts 00:07:43 Terms & Conditions: Plutocratic 00:08:42 Big Pilcrow: Immigration and the Economy 00:36:38 Executive Orders: “The media isn’t covering this” comments; best-of award for bookstore tote bags. 00:38:31 Spiritual Sponsors: Sonoratown and an IPA on tap Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders? Send them to [email protected]

The Consumer Sentiment Index has tracked how Americans experience the U.S. economy through bouts of runaway inflation, a mortgage crisis, stock market bubbles, and six recessions. And yet the scores right now are lower than at any of those moments. After nearly 50 years of tracking by the University of Michigan, Consumer Sentiment has broken through the basement. Beneath the five index questions are some clues as to why: Since 2008, the number of people who say the government is doing a poor job has grown from about a third to about three-quarters. This dissatisfaction has been a slow burn — and it’s also evidence that Americans are ready for bold, non-incremental economic change. 0:00 — Opening 6:25 — Retcon: Vacation Days & Moral Hazard in Healthcare 11:18 — Terms & Conditions: Likert Scale 14:24 — The Big Pilcrow: What’s Consumer Sentiment Telling Us? 17:20 — Record Lows: Sentiment Breaks From the Other Economic Metrics 20:54 — The Five Index Questions: Take Consumer Sentiment Survey Yourself! 26:55 — How’s the Government Doing Managing the Economy? Survey says…Poor 29:39 — It's the Economy, Stupid 31:16 — Partisanship Cancels Itself Out 33:11 — Why This Isn't the Same as What Happened to Biden 35:25 — Who Does Feel Good? 36:07 — Low Sentiment Deserves Big Policy 38:07 — Executive Orders: Hold the reservation. Too many eggs. 41:52 — Spiritual Sponsors: So, so many 47:17 — Credits We’re making Thanksgiving plans. Got a dinner table debate we can help with? Send it to [email protected] (and put Thanksgiving in the subject line). Donate to Optimist Economy, a registered 501(c)(3) nonprofit: https://optimisteconomy.com All the swearing is on the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. And Facebook, but you’ll just have to search for that. Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Optimist hats are back in stock at the merch store: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy

(Originally aired June 10, 2025) The national debt is $36 trillion. That could be a panic-inducing big number. So maybe it will help to understand how we ran up that debt. We've blown 37% of it on tax cuts, with precious little to show for that. But 28% went to stabilize the economy during two major crises (in ‘08-’09 and during the COVID pandemic), which is when you do want the federal government to pull out its credit card. Good news is we don’t have to get the debt to zero. We just need to get it moving in that direction. And for listeners waiting for MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) to make a cameo, that moment has arrived. Support Optimist Economy by becoming a paid Substack subscriber here, or by making a contribution at https://buymeacoffee.com/optimisteconomy Complete show notes with links to articles and data at optimisteconomy.com. You can also find Optimist Economy on: TikTok YouTube Instagram Read more: From Riches to Rags: Causes of Fiscal Deterioration Since 2001 [Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 2024] Economic Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act [Congressional Research Service, 2025] Is Modern Monetary Theory Nutty or Essential? [The Economist, 2019] Is This What Winning Looks Like?: Modern Monetary Theory, the buzziest economic idea in decades, got a pandemic tryout of sorts. Now inflation is testing its limits. [New York Times, 2022]

Optimist Economy is on break this month, but we know that optimist listeners are interested in tales of economic history, issues of inequality and movements for change. So we thought some of you might enjoy "Occupy!" a six-part narrative series about Occupy Wall Street, the 2011 protest village that lasted nearly two months and turned a spotlight on systemic economic inequality in the U.S. --- EPISODE 1: An Invitation In 2011, a handful of skeptical New Yorkers answer a call to Occupy Wall Street. What they find feels less like a protest and more like a glimpse of a different world—one where people openly share stories of debt, hardship, and frustration. They start to build an anti-capitalist village in a tiny Manhattan park — under the watchful eyes of police. This is the first episode of Future Hindsight’s brand new 6-part series, OCCUPY! An Unfinished Uprising. Subscribe to Future Hindsight wherever you get your podcasts so you don’t miss a single episode! Want to dive deeper? Listen to these episodes of Future Hindsight: For a conversation on activism with a co-founder of Occupy Wall Street, tune in to this episode with Micah White: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/micah-white For a recap of how American capitalism evolved into what it is today, listen to this episode with Kurt Andersen: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/americas-evil-geniuses-kurt-andersen On solidarity and mutual aid, listen to this conversation with Manuel Pastor: https://www.futurehindsight.com/episodes/episode/solidarity-and-mutuality-manuel-pastor Credits: Host / Executive Producer: Mila Atmos Producer / Writer: Maria Luisa Tucker Audio Producer: Zack Travis Additional production help: Mia Warren, Erika Gjada, Megan Detrie, Lizzie Jacobs, and Ilya Magazanin Archival research: Marisa Holmes Archival material courtesy of: Occupy Wall Street Media Working Group. Original music: Rude Mechanical Orchestra and Puge Ruhe Special thanks to T.J. Raphael, Lauren Passell, Arielle Nissenblatt, and Kate Blumenfeld for being our first listeners and sounding boards, and to Tom Koenig for his support. Distributed by PRX.

Nearly 90% of private-sector workers get paid vacation days from their job, but a Pew survey found 46% leave at least some of it on the table. Government survey data also show that the share of workers who are on vacation in any given week has fall by about half between 1980 and 2022. Blame thin staffing, guilt culture, and “PTO bundles” that push people to ration days between vacation days and sick leave. The fix exists elsewhere: the European Union, for instance, guarantees 20 paid days a year. If a Costco cashier is able to vacation in Europe twice, so should you. Chapters: 0:52 Announcements 2:53 Retcon Marathon 11:01 Terms & Conditions: Statutory Leave 12:04 Big Pilcrow: Vacation Days 14:03 Why Do We Think We Can't Take Time Off? 16:01 No Staffing Slack in the Office 16:51 Vacation Guilt is a Real Thing 18:51 What's Worker Power Got to Do With It? 20:20 Decline in Days Off: What the Data Says 21:17 Vague Numbers of Vacation Days 24:23 Cost of Travel is Up 24:56 Statutory Leave Could Create Jobs 26:28 What are Workers Leaving on the Table? 28:48 How Much Does Vacation Time Cost Employers? 31:08 Vacation Marxist Economics-Style 34:40 The Curse of the Long-Weekend Vacation 38:21 Could the Government Mandate Vacation Time? 42:46 Executive Orders: ACFC wins and Americans with Children Act 46:23 Spiritual Sponsors: Lizards! Donate to Optimist Economy: https://optimisteconomy.com Video-curious? Watch the Optimist Economy YouTube channel⁠⁠. We’re also on Instagram at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy or TikTok at ⁠⁠@optimist_economy. Chat with other Optimists on Substack. Find utility with our merch: https://merch.ambientinks.com/collections/optimisteconomy Got economic questions, concerns, or executive orders? Send them to [email protected]