Is Nuclear Winter Actually a Possibility or Just Pseudoscience?
APR 17, 202648 MIN
Is Nuclear Winter Actually a Possibility or Just Pseudoscience?
APR 17, 202648 MIN
Description
As horrific as a nuclear war would be in the immediate, a common idea is
that the real troubles for humanity, and the world, would actually
occur in the long aftermath, triggering what is now commonly known as
nuclear winter- a nightmarish scenario in which atmospheric temperatures
would drop dramatically, crops would fail, and widespread famine,
disease, and unrest would follow, leading to a catastrophic reduction in
the global population, or even the end of human civilization. But just
what is ‘nuclear winter’ anyway? Who came up with it, and is it actually
a real possibility, or just some scientists with way too much time on
their hands and a news media who loves them some good doomsday
scenarios, whether they are valid possibilities or not.
Well, put on your gas mask and lead-lined underwear as we dive into the
controversial history and science of one of the most frightening
doomsday scenarios ever conceived.
Surprisingly, the first published suggestion that a nuclear war could
alter the global climate appeared not in an official scientific
publication, but rather in fiction. In the post-apocalyptic short story
Tomorrow’s Children by American science fiction writer Poul Anderson,
first published in the March 1947 issue of Astounding Science Fiction, a
team of scientists hunt down mutated humans in the wake of a nuclear
war. At one point, the story’s protagonist High Drummond observes that:
“Winter lay heavily on the north, a vast grey sky seeming frozen solid
over the rolling white plains. The last three winters had come early and
stayed long. Dust, colloidal dust of the bombs, suspended in the
atmosphere and cutting down the solar constant by a deadly percent or
two. There had even been a few earthquakes, se off in geologically
unstable parts of the world by bombs planted right. Half of California
had been ruined when a sabotage bomb started the San Andreas Fault on a
major slip. And that kicked up still more dust. Fimbulwinter, thought
Drummond bleakly. The doom of the prophecy.”
Anderson later adapted this story into a full-length novel titled
Twilight World, first published in 1961. The same phenomenon also
appears in Christopher Anvil’s short story Torch, published in the April
1957 issue of Astounding Science Fiction. In this story, a Soviet
nuclear ballistic missile test in Siberia accidentally sets fire to an
oil field, releasing large amounts of oily soot into the atmosphere that
blots out the sun and triggers a global ice age.
The term Fimbulwinter or “mighty winter” in Anderson’s original 1947
story is drawn from Norse Mythology, and refers to a series of three
particularly harsh winters preceding Ragnarök, the apocalyptic battle of
the Gods that will destroy and cleanse the world. While the origins of
any mythological concept are hard to pin down, it has been speculated
that Fimbulwinter may have been inspired by the Volcanic Winter of 536,
in which a series of simultaneous volcanic eruptions ejected vast
amounts of particulates - especially sulfur dioxide - into the upper
atmosphere. They lingered there for years, blocking out the sun’s rays
and causing global temperatures to drop by as much as 2.5 degrees
Celsius or 4.5 degrees. As Roman historian Precopius recorded:
“And it came about during this year that a most dread portent took
place. For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the
moon, during this whole year, and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in
eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear nor such as it is
accustomed to shed. And from the time when this thing happened men were
free neither from war nor pestilence nor any other thing leading to
death.”
Author: Gilles Messier
Host / Editor: Daven Hiskey
Producer: Samuel Avila
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