Summary  In this episode of the Weather Geeks Podcast, host Jen Carfagno welcomes Dr. Wallace Hogsett from the National Hurricane Center to discuss the verification of hurricane forecasting models from the 2025 season. They delve into the intricacies of how forecasts are verified against actual storm data, emphasizing the importance of understanding model performance to improve future predictions. Dr. Hogsett shares insights on the integration of AI-based forecasting tools, particularly the Google DeepMind model, which showed promising results in both track and intensity predictions. The conversation highlights the evolving landscape of hurricane forecasting, the challenges of rapid intensification, and the critical role of accurate data assimilation in enhancing model reliability.

Weather Geeks

Weather Group Television

The 2025 Hurricane Models Report Card

JAN 21, 202642 MIN
Weather Geeks

The 2025 Hurricane Models Report Card

JAN 21, 202642 MIN

Description

Guest: Dr. Wallace Hogsett, Science & Operations Officer at the NHCEvery hurricane season tells a story — not just through the storms that form, but through the forecasts that guide us. And once the season ends, the real detective work begins: Which models nailed the track? Which ones struggled with intensity? And what did we learn that will help us prepare for the next big storm? Joining us today is Dr. Wallace Hogsett from the National Hurricane Center, one of the experts who turns those post-season numbers into meaningful insight. We’ll break down the verification results from the 2025 season, explore how models are improving — and where they’re not — and talk about the growing influence of AI-based forecasting tools. It’s a behind-the-scenes look at the scorecard that shapes the future of hurricane prediction, straight from the people who know the models best.Chapters00:00 Introduction to Hurricane Forecasting01:00 Dr. Hogsett's Journey in Meteorology05:01 Understanding Verification in Hurricane Forecasting07:12 AI's Impact on Hurricane Prediction13:47 Break 114:13 Rapid Intensification and Forecasting Tools17:41 Incorporating AI Models into Forecasting30:29 Break 230:31 Communication and Uncertainty in Weather Forecasting39:53 Looking Ahead: The Future of Hurricane PredictionSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.