Aimen's back after a few days away uncovering the secret info and true motivations behind the Iran War. Today he and Thomas focus on the Lebanon front in the war, telling the story of how the Lebanese state was progressively undermined over several decades, as non-state actors acted like a cancer on the body politic — with the largest tumour being, of course, Hezbollah. Aimen and Thomas discuss: The method behind the madness of Pres. Trump's chaotic messaging. The likelihood of a U.S. assault on Iran's islands in the Gulf. Whether Gulf leaders are really egging the U.S. on to bring an end to the regime. The U.S.'s objective of 'regime destruction' and how that differs from 'regime change'. The failure of energy traders to price risk properly. Abdul Malik al-Houthi's speech on 26 March and what it reveals about his intentions The long history of Lebanon's experience of militant non-state actors and foreign intervention How Hezbollah was able to re-arm and re-build after the catastrophe of autumn 2024. How deep corruption within the Lebanese government and military is preventing the state from disbanding Hezbollah. What to think about all those seasoned analysts who are convinced that America will lose this war. Join the Conflicted Community here: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://conflicted.supportingcast.fm/⁠⁠⁠⁠ Find us on X: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://x.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Facebook: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.facebook.com/MHconflicted⁠⁠⁠⁠ And Instagram: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.instagram.com/conflictedpod⁠⁠⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices⁠⁠⁠⁠ Conflicted is a Message Heard production. Executive Producers: Jake Warren & Max Warren. Produced and edited by Thomas Small. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices