The mindset of a poker pro can now be applied outside of a narrow game.<br /><br />In Episode #517 of 'Meanderings', Juan &amp; I discuss: Annie Duke’s 'Thinking In Bets' book and how the poker mindset can reshape everyday decision-making, why focusing on process over outcomes matters,&nbsp; how using AI as a sounding board revealed hidden risk-taking in my own finances, testing assumptions in small experiments before going all-in, how arbitrage opportunities appear with prediction markets and why clarity on desired outcomes should drive bet-sizing. <br /><br />No support for this week so no beanie either. Also my laptop died suddenly hence the rather curt cut off at the end. Luckily we were almost done anyway phew. <br /><br />Stan Link: <a href="https://stan.store/meremortals" target="_blank">https://stan.store/meremortals</a><br /><br />Timeline:<br />&nbsp;<br />(00:00:00) Intro<br />(00:03:22) Outcome vs process: luck, good decisions, and post mortems<br />(00:09:16) Poker as repeated high impact decisions and learning while folding<br />(00:12:45) Symmetry, asymmetry, and spotting obviously bad bets<br />(00:18:34) Focus on decision quality, not results: lessons from early poker hands<br />(00:23:34) Plans that fail from wrong models: refining sell strategies<br />(00:28:15) Designing a simple, robust framework: time, percentage, and mean reversion<br />(00:31:28) Support break and playful side bets (brief interlude)<br />(00:31:59) Defining enough: goals, asymmetry, and chasing deltas<br />(00:35:18) Context is king: life design vs maximising returns<br />(00:38:56) Lifestyle upgrades vs status buys<br />(00:42:39) Comparing lives you don't want<br />(00:45:14) Test your dreams: mini retirements and truth over fantasy<br />(00:48:25) Prediction markets 101: from politics to Eurovision<br />(00:51:08) Arbitrage basics: finding edge across bookmakers<br />(00:56:24) Overconfidence, Dunning Kruger and too much information<br />(01:01:02) Avoiding tilt: energy, time, and knowing when to walk away<br />(01:03:27) AI flights of fancy: unified physics and healthy scepticism<br />(01:05:01) Wrap up: from thinking in bets to betting on ideas&nbsp; <p><br /><br />Connect with Mere Mortals:<br />Website: <a href="https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/" target="_blank">https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/</a><br />Discord: <a href="https://discord.gg/jjfq9eGReU" target="_blank">https://discord.gg/jjfq9eGReU</a><br />Twitter/X: <a href="https://twitter.com/meremortalspods" target="_blank">https://twitter.com/meremortalspods</a><br />Instagram: <a href="https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/" target="_blank">https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/</a><br />TikTok: <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcasts" target="_blank">https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcasts</a><br /><br />Value 4 Value Support:<br />Boostagram: <a href="https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/support" target="_blank">https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/support</a><br />Paypal: <a href="https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast" target="_blank">https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast</a></p>