<description>&lt;p&gt;A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Dylan Patel runs &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.semianalysis.com/"&gt;Semianalysis&lt;/a&gt;, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@Asianometry"&gt;Asianometry&lt;/a&gt;, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;* What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;* $ 1T+ in datacenter buildout by end of decade&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Watch on &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://youtu.be/pE3KKUKXcTM"&gt;YouTube&lt;/a&gt;. Listen on &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456"&gt;Apple Podcasts&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=XPbFrc8HRQedPM-tqHAnGQ"&gt;Spotify&lt;/a&gt;, or any other podcast platform. Read the &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon"&gt;full transcript here&lt;/a&gt;. Follow &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp"&gt;me on Twitter&lt;/a&gt; for updates on future episodes.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Sponsors:&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;* &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh"&gt;Jane Street&lt;/a&gt; is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh"&gt;here&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;* This episode is brought to you by &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://stripe.com/"&gt;Stripe&lt;/a&gt;, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out &lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise"&gt;this page&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Timestamps&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/xis-path-to-agi"&gt;00:00:00 – Xi's path to AGI&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/liang-mong-song"&gt;00:04:20 – Liang Mong Song&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/how-semiconductors-get-better"&gt;00:08:25 – How semiconductors get better&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/china-can-centralize-compute"&gt;00:11:16 – China can centralize compute&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/export-controls-and-sanctions"&gt;00:18:50 – Export controls &amp; sanctions&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/huaweis-intense-culture"&gt;00:32:51 – Huawei's intense culture&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/why-the-semiconductor-industry-is-so-stratified"&gt;00:38:51 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/can-we-afford-moores-law"&gt;00:40:58 – N2 should not exist&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/taiwan-invasion-hypothetical"&gt;00:45:53 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/mind-boggling-complexity-of-semiconductors"&gt;00:49:21 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/chip-architecture-design"&gt;00:59:13 – Chip architecture design&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/architectures-lead-to-different-ai-models-china-vs-us"&gt;01:04:36 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/being-head-of-compute-at-an-ai-lab"&gt;01:10:12 – Being head of compute at an AI lab&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/scaling-costs-and-power-demand"&gt;01:16:24 – Scaling costs and power demand&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/are-we-financing-an-ai-bubble"&gt;01:37:05 – Are we financing an AI bubble?&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/starting-asianometry-and-semianalysis"&gt;01:50:20 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/opportunities-in-the-semiconductor-stack"&gt;02:06:10 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;br/&gt;&lt;br/&gt;Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at &lt;a href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&amp;#38;utm_campaign=CTA_4"&gt;www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe&lt;/a&gt;</description>

Dwarkesh Podcast

Dwarkesh Patel

Dylan Patel & Jon (Asianometry) – How the Semiconductor Industry Actually Works

OCT 2, 2024129 MIN
Dwarkesh Podcast

Dylan Patel & Jon (Asianometry) – How the Semiconductor Industry Actually Works

OCT 2, 2024129 MIN

Description

<p>A bonanza on the semiconductor industry and hardware scaling to AGI by the end of the decade.</p><p>Dylan Patel runs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.semianalysis.com/">Semianalysis</a>, the leading publication and research firm on AI hardware. Jon Y runs <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/@Asianometry">Asianometry</a>, the world’s best YouTube channel on semiconductors and business history.</p><p>* What Xi would do if he became scaling pilled</p><p>* $ 1T+ in datacenter buildout by end of decade</p><p>Watch on <a target="_blank" href="https://youtu.be/pE3KKUKXcTM">YouTube</a>. Listen on <a target="_blank" href="https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dylan-patel-jon-asianometry-how-the-semiconductor/id1516093381?i=1000671564456">Apple Podcasts</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/6q1XODE2L5bqqBwe7434S7?si=XPbFrc8HRQedPM-tqHAnGQ">Spotify</a>, or any other podcast platform. Read the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/dylan-jon">full transcript here</a>. Follow <a target="_blank" href="https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp">me on Twitter</a> for updates on future episodes.</p><p>Sponsors:</p><p>* <a target="_blank" href="https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh">Jane Street</a> is looking to hire their next generation of leaders. Their deep learning team is looking for FPGA programmers, CUDA programmers, and ML researchers. To learn more about their full time roles, internship, tech podcast, and upcoming Kaggle competition, go <a target="_blank" href="https://jane-st.co/dwarkesh">here</a>.</p><p>* This episode is brought to you by <a target="_blank" href="https://stripe.com/">Stripe</a>, financial infrastructure for the internet. Millions of companies from Anthropic to Amazon use Stripe to accept payments, automate financial processes and grow their revenue.</p><p>If you’re interested in advertising on the podcast, check out <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/advertise">this page</a>.</p><p>Timestamps</p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/xis-path-to-agi">00:00:00 – Xi's path to AGI</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/liang-mong-song">00:04:20 – Liang Mong Song</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/how-semiconductors-get-better">00:08:25 – How semiconductors get better</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/china-can-centralize-compute">00:11:16 – China can centralize compute</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/export-controls-and-sanctions">00:18:50 – Export controls & sanctions</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/huaweis-intense-culture">00:32:51 – Huawei's intense culture</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/why-the-semiconductor-industry-is-so-stratified">00:38:51 – Why the semiconductor industry is so stratified</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/can-we-afford-moores-law">00:40:58 – N2 should not exist</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/taiwan-invasion-hypothetical">00:45:53 – Taiwan invasion hypothetical</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/mind-boggling-complexity-of-semiconductors">00:49:21 – Mind-boggling complexity of semiconductors</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/chip-architecture-design">00:59:13 – Chip architecture design</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/architectures-lead-to-different-ai-models-china-vs-us">01:04:36 – Architectures lead to different AI models? China vs. US</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/being-head-of-compute-at-an-ai-lab">01:10:12 – Being head of compute at an AI lab</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/scaling-costs-and-power-demand">01:16:24 – Scaling costs and power demand</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/are-we-financing-an-ai-bubble">01:37:05 – Are we financing an AI bubble?</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/starting-asianometry-and-semianalysis">01:50:20 – Starting Asianometry and SemiAnalysis</a></p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/i/149705443/opportunities-in-the-semiconductor-stack">02:06:10 – Opportunities in the semiconductor stack</a></p> <br/><br/>Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at <a href="https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe?utm_medium=podcast&#38;utm_campaign=CTA_4">www.dwarkeshpatel.com/subscribe</a>