<p>Abivax posted maybe the best ulcerative colitis data anyone&#39;s seen, then crashed 60% on a cancer signal Adam May argues is statistical noise. We dig into whether $ABVX is now a mispriced takeout: the maintenance efficacy that beat Rinvoq, how the scary &quot;seven cancer cases&quot; collapse to two, the blackbox question, the Crohn&#39;s skew, and the part two safety data due within weeks. Then a quick look at Nectar (NKTR), its alopecia areata data, and the Eli Lilly lawsuit.</p><p>This episode is s<a href="https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferer">ponsored by AlphaSense, and specifically Andrew&#39;s upcoming AI webinar with them:</a> breaking down the modern AI stack for investors with Dave Wang (Wall Street Prompts) and Ben Collins (AlphaSense). <a href="https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferer">Goes live June 25. Register here. </a></p><p>Chapters:</p><p>00:00 Intro and disclosure (long ABVX and NKTR)</p><p>01:03 Sponsor: AlphaSense AI webinar for investors</p><p>02:33 The biotech &quot;GOAT&quot; returns</p><p>03:33 Abivax setup: induction vs maintenance, the stakes</p><p>06:38 The bar: clinical remission and Rinvoq</p><p>10:14 Blowout maintenance data, and endoscopic remission that doubles Rinvoq</p><p>14:23 The data drops, then a 60% crash</p><p>16:31 The cancer scare, taken apart case by case</p><p>24:45 Why it&#39;s statistical noise: mechanism, clustering, base rates</p><p>28:50 Adverse-event capture and the phase 2 safety database</p><p>33:57 Bear case: hasn&#39;t the market had time to digest this?</p><p>38:00 Blackbox or no blackbox, and does it matter at $100</p><p>40:32 The Crohn&#39;s readout and the skew</p><p>45:36 M&amp;A: timing, the new CCO, what Adam wants them to do</p><p>47:38 Part two safety data due within weeks</p><p>54:46 The cash question: secondary vs sale</p><p>57:49 Nectar: strong data, then an unexplained selloff</p><p>59:54 The Eli Lilly lawsuit and the jury-trial angle</p><p>01:03:26 Ox40 read-through and the Q32 Bio overhang</p><p>01:06:07 Most mispriced pick, targets, and the CEO&#39;s Cincor parallel</p><p>01:12:10 Wrap</p><p>Links:</p><p>Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com</p><p>See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer</p><p>Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/</p><p>Disclosure: Long ABVX and NKTR</p>