Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD

JUN 15, 202653 MIN
Yet Another Value Podcast

Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD

JUN 15, 202653 MIN

Description

<p>Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending &quot;dark arts&quot; signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn&#39;t paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad&#39;s frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.</p><p>This episode is sponsored by<a href="https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferer"> AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar</a> breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&amp;utm_medium=sponsored&amp;utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions</p><p>Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD</p><p>Chapters:</p><p>0:00 Two cheap special situations and the &quot;dark arts&quot; setup</p><p>1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar</p><p>2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management</p><p>3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory</p><p>7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6</p><p>9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO</p><p>13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12</p><p>15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies</p><p>18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks</p><p>24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside</p><p>29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case</p><p>33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield</p><p>35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO</p><p>39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?</p><p>41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?</p><p>43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?</p><p>45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day</p><p>47:37 &quot;Addback city&quot;: cleaning up the earnings number</p><p>50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?</p><p>Links:</p><p>Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com</p><p>See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer</p><p>Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/</p>