Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD
JUN 15, 202653 MIN
Alex Roepers on two deep-value special situations: $DCH and $NOMD
JUN 15, 202653 MIN
Description
<p>Alex Roepers of Atlantic Investment Management lays out two deeply cheap special situations: Dauch (DCH) and Nomad Foods (NOMD). In both, management is sending "dark arts" signals (an aggressive CEO payout struck well above the current price, heavy insider buying) that point to an inflection the market hasn't paid for yet. We dig into the $300M merger synergies at Dauch, the auto-cycle and leverage risk, the governance red flags, the private-label threat to Nomad's frozen-food brands, and whether the European discount on both is real or just doldrums.</p><p>This episode is sponsored by<a href="https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferer"> AlphaSense. Join Andrew, Dave Wang of Wall Street Prompts, and Ben Collins of AlphaSense for a webinar</a> breaking down the modern AI stack for investors: where horizontal platforms, agentic workflows, and finance-specific tools each actually fit in a real research process. Recording June 16, live June 25. Register here: https://www.alpha-sense.com/resources/webinars/choosing-your-ai-stack-a-framework-for-institutional-investors/?utm_source=pt_YAVP&utm_medium=sponsored&utm_campaign=SWB_DG_06-25-26_IMP-GENAI_CORPFS_YAVP-AI-Solutions</p><p>Disclosure: long DCH and NOMD</p><p>Chapters:</p><p>0:00 Two cheap special situations and the "dark arts" setup</p><p>1:10 Sponsor: AlphaSense and the AI-stack-for-investors webinar</p><p>2:29 Alex Roepers, Atlantic Investment Management</p><p>3:04 Dauch ($DCH): the GKN, Melrose and Dowlais backstory</p><p>7:05 Why Atlantic made $DCH a core position at ~$6</p><p>9:03 The governance knock: a company named after a sub-1% CEO</p><p>13:42 Dark arts: the PSU grant that only pays above $12</p><p>15:11 Underwriting the $300M merger synergies</p><p>18:13 Leverage, capital allocation and the path to buybacks</p><p>24:42 The auto cycle and why 5x free cash flow caps the downside</p><p>29:12 Nomad Foods ($NOMD): the frozen-food bull case</p><p>33:14 Nomad by the numbers: 5.5x earnings, 7% yield</p><p>35:39 The bear case: private label, Aldi and a new CEO</p><p>39:21 Would Martin Franklin ever sell?</p><p>41:22 Dividend or buyback at these levels?</p><p>43:00 Is Franklin distracted by APi Group?</p><p>45:27 The kitchen-sink reset and a fall investor day</p><p>47:37 "Addback city": cleaning up the earnings number</p><p>50:02 The European discount: real or imagined?</p><p>Links:</p><p>Yet Another Value Blog - https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com</p><p>See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer</p><p>Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/</p>