<p>Are you as good at making decisions as you <em>think</em> you are? 🤔</p><p>In this replay of the Decidedly Podcast, we sit down with repeat guest <strong>Don Moore</strong>, UC Berkeley professor and author of <em>Perfectly Confident</em> and <em>Decision Leadership</em>, to unpack the hidden dangers of <strong>overconfidence</strong> and <strong>overprecision</strong> in business, investing, parenting, and everyday life.</p><p>You’ll learn:<br />✅ What the <strong>Dunning–Kruger effect</strong> really means (and how to spot it in yourself)<br />✅ Why most people are <em>too sure</em> about their decisions — and what that costs them<br />✅ How <strong>probabilistic thinking</strong> can sharpen your choices in business and beyond<br />✅ The difference between confidence that fuels success vs. confidence that blinds you<br />✅ Real-world examples: from parenting choices to market predictions to AI hallucinations</p><p><br /></p><p>If you’ve ever wondered why smart people still make bad decisions — and how to avoid being one of them — this conversation is packed with actionable wisdom.</p><p> </p><p><a href="https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/su/4veR8tV/decidedlypodcast" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE WEEKLY NEWSLETTER</strong>⁠⁠</a></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>CHAPTERS</strong></p><p><strong>00:00 </strong>– Intro: Defeating bad decision-making in life &amp; business</p><p><strong>02:00</strong> – Why new parents are overconfident</p><p><strong>05:30</strong> – The Dunning-Kruger effect in parenting and beyond</p><p><strong>07:40</strong> – What is over-precision, and why does it matter?</p><p><strong>12:20</strong> – The dangers of overconfidence in business and investing</p><p><strong>16:55</strong> – Why successful people struggle with decision-making</p><p><strong>19:20</strong> – The power of having language for decision-making biases</p><p><strong>21:45</strong> – How thinking in probabilities leads to better choices</p><p><strong>24:05</strong> – Market predictions, uncertainty, and decision paralysis</p><p><strong>26:20</strong> – How hobbies and competition keep us humble</p><p><strong>28:50</strong> – The behaviors that make people more (or less) overconfident</p><p><strong>31:05</strong> – The surprising gift of criticism</p><p><strong>33:25</strong> – Parenting, teenage rebellion, and overconfidence</p><p><strong>36:50</strong> – Overconfidence in parenting decisions</p><p><strong>39:10</strong> – Avoiding regret and learning from imperfect decisions</p><p><strong>41:20</strong> – Why most people misinterpret their financial wins</p><p><strong>43:45</strong> – Is AI overconfident? The risk of machine-generated certainty</p><p><strong>46:00</strong> – The problem with certainty in AI, investing, and life</p><p><strong>48:30</strong> – Why demanding 100% certainty keeps you stuck</p><p><strong>50:30</strong> – What Sanger has learned from hosting Decidedly</p><p><strong>55:10</strong> – The importance of embracing uncertainty in business and life</p><p><strong>57:35</strong> – Don’s top decision-making tip for business owners</p><p><strong>57:47</strong> – Where to connect with Don Moore</p><p><strong>58:16</strong> – Key Takeaways</p><p><strong>59:29</strong> – Message from the Producer </p><p> </p><p><strong>CONNECT WITH US</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.decidedlypodcast.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠www.decidedlypodcast.com⁠⁠</a></p><p><strong></strong><a href="https://youtu.be/zhq68fRFz8o" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠<strong>Watch this episode on YouTube</strong>⁠</a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Subscribe on </strong>⁠<a href="https://www.youtube.com/@decidedlypodcast?sub_confirmation=1" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠<strong>YouTube</strong>⁠</a></p><p><strong>Join us on </strong><a href="https://www.instagram.com/decidedlypodcast/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Instagram</strong>⁠⁠</a><strong>: </strong>@decidedlypodcast</p><p><strong>Join us on </strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/decidedlypodcast" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Facebook</strong>⁠⁠</a></p><p><strong>Shawn’s </strong><a href="https://www.instagram.com/shawn_d_smith/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Instagram</strong>⁠⁠</a><strong>: </strong>@shawn_d_smith</p><p><strong>Sanger’s </strong><a href="https://www.instagram.com/sangersmith/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Instagram</strong>⁠⁠</a><strong>:</strong> @sangersmith </p><p> </p><p><strong>SANGER’S BOOK:</strong><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Life-Rich-Significance-Transforming-Meaningful/dp/1952654769" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠A Life Rich with Significance: Transforming Your Wealth to Meaningful Impact⁠⁠</a></p><p> </p><p><strong>SHAWN’S BOOK: </strong><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Plateau-Jumping-What-Change-When-ebook/dp/B0CTXHP5HR" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠Plateau Jumping: What to Change When Change Is What You Want⁠⁠</a></p><p> </p><p><strong>MAKING A FINANCIAL DECISION?</strong></p><p>At <a href="https://www.decidedlywealth.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠Decidedly Wealth Management⁠⁠</a>, we focus on decision-making as the foundational element of success, in our effort to empower families to purposefully apply their wealth to fulfill their values and build a thriving legacy. </p><p><strong>LEARN MORE: </strong><a href="http://www.decidedlywealth.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠www.decidedlywealth.com⁠⁠</a></p><p> </p><p><strong>CONNECT WITH DON MOORE</strong></p><p><strong>Don’s Faculty Website: </strong><a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/⁠</a> </p><p><strong>Don’s Lab Website: </strong><a href="https://learnmoore.org/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://learnmoore.org/⁠</a> </p><p><strong>X: </strong>@donandrewmoore </p><p><strong>LinkedIn: </strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/⁠</a> </p><p><strong>Books: </strong><a href="https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&amp;visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&amp;ref_=ap_rdr" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&amp;visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&amp;ref_=ap_rdr⁠</a>  </p><p><br /></p><p>Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth.  He is only occasionally overconfident. </p>

Decidedly I Decision Tips for Business Owners

Sanger Smith and Shawn Smith

Deciding with Confidence: How to Avoid Overconfidence & Make Smarter Choices with Don Moore | Ep.178 REPLAY

SEP 3, 202560 MIN
Decidedly I Decision Tips for Business Owners

Deciding with Confidence: How to Avoid Overconfidence & Make Smarter Choices with Don Moore | Ep.178 REPLAY

SEP 3, 202560 MIN

Description

<p>Are you as good at making decisions as you <em>think</em> you are? 🤔</p><p>In this replay of the Decidedly Podcast, we sit down with repeat guest <strong>Don Moore</strong>, UC Berkeley professor and author of <em>Perfectly Confident</em> and <em>Decision Leadership</em>, to unpack the hidden dangers of <strong>overconfidence</strong> and <strong>overprecision</strong> in business, investing, parenting, and everyday life.</p><p>You’ll learn:<br />✅ What the <strong>Dunning–Kruger effect</strong> really means (and how to spot it in yourself)<br />✅ Why most people are <em>too sure</em> about their decisions — and what that costs them<br />✅ How <strong>probabilistic thinking</strong> can sharpen your choices in business and beyond<br />✅ The difference between confidence that fuels success vs. confidence that blinds you<br />✅ Real-world examples: from parenting choices to market predictions to AI hallucinations</p><p><br /></p><p>If you’ve ever wondered why smart people still make bad decisions — and how to avoid being one of them — this conversation is packed with actionable wisdom.</p><p> </p><p><a href="https://lp.constantcontactpages.com/su/4veR8tV/decidedlypodcast" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>SIGN UP FOR OUR FREE WEEKLY NEWSLETTER</strong>⁠⁠</a></p><p><br /></p><p><strong>CHAPTERS</strong></p><p><strong>00:00 </strong>– Intro: Defeating bad decision-making in life &amp; business</p><p><strong>02:00</strong> – Why new parents are overconfident</p><p><strong>05:30</strong> – The Dunning-Kruger effect in parenting and beyond</p><p><strong>07:40</strong> – What is over-precision, and why does it matter?</p><p><strong>12:20</strong> – The dangers of overconfidence in business and investing</p><p><strong>16:55</strong> – Why successful people struggle with decision-making</p><p><strong>19:20</strong> – The power of having language for decision-making biases</p><p><strong>21:45</strong> – How thinking in probabilities leads to better choices</p><p><strong>24:05</strong> – Market predictions, uncertainty, and decision paralysis</p><p><strong>26:20</strong> – How hobbies and competition keep us humble</p><p><strong>28:50</strong> – The behaviors that make people more (or less) overconfident</p><p><strong>31:05</strong> – The surprising gift of criticism</p><p><strong>33:25</strong> – Parenting, teenage rebellion, and overconfidence</p><p><strong>36:50</strong> – Overconfidence in parenting decisions</p><p><strong>39:10</strong> – Avoiding regret and learning from imperfect decisions</p><p><strong>41:20</strong> – Why most people misinterpret their financial wins</p><p><strong>43:45</strong> – Is AI overconfident? The risk of machine-generated certainty</p><p><strong>46:00</strong> – The problem with certainty in AI, investing, and life</p><p><strong>48:30</strong> – Why demanding 100% certainty keeps you stuck</p><p><strong>50:30</strong> – What Sanger has learned from hosting Decidedly</p><p><strong>55:10</strong> – The importance of embracing uncertainty in business and life</p><p><strong>57:35</strong> – Don’s top decision-making tip for business owners</p><p><strong>57:47</strong> – Where to connect with Don Moore</p><p><strong>58:16</strong> – Key Takeaways</p><p><strong>59:29</strong> – Message from the Producer </p><p> </p><p><strong>CONNECT WITH US</strong></p><p><a href="http://www.decidedlypodcast.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠www.decidedlypodcast.com⁠⁠</a></p><p><strong></strong><a href="https://youtu.be/zhq68fRFz8o" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠<strong>Watch this episode on YouTube</strong>⁠</a><strong></strong></p><p><strong>Subscribe on </strong>⁠<a href="https://www.youtube.com/@decidedlypodcast?sub_confirmation=1" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠<strong>YouTube</strong>⁠</a></p><p><strong>Join us on </strong><a href="https://www.instagram.com/decidedlypodcast/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Instagram</strong>⁠⁠</a><strong>: </strong>@decidedlypodcast</p><p><strong>Join us on </strong><a href="https://www.facebook.com/decidedlypodcast" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Facebook</strong>⁠⁠</a></p><p><strong>Shawn’s </strong><a href="https://www.instagram.com/shawn_d_smith/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Instagram</strong>⁠⁠</a><strong>: </strong>@shawn_d_smith</p><p><strong>Sanger’s </strong><a href="https://www.instagram.com/sangersmith/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠<strong>Instagram</strong>⁠⁠</a><strong>:</strong> @sangersmith </p><p> </p><p><strong>SANGER’S BOOK:</strong><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Life-Rich-Significance-Transforming-Meaningful/dp/1952654769" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠A Life Rich with Significance: Transforming Your Wealth to Meaningful Impact⁠⁠</a></p><p> </p><p><strong>SHAWN’S BOOK: </strong><a href="https://www.amazon.com/Plateau-Jumping-What-Change-When-ebook/dp/B0CTXHP5HR" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠Plateau Jumping: What to Change When Change Is What You Want⁠⁠</a></p><p> </p><p><strong>MAKING A FINANCIAL DECISION?</strong></p><p>At <a href="https://www.decidedlywealth.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠Decidedly Wealth Management⁠⁠</a>, we focus on decision-making as the foundational element of success, in our effort to empower families to purposefully apply their wealth to fulfill their values and build a thriving legacy. </p><p><strong>LEARN MORE: </strong><a href="http://www.decidedlywealth.com" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠⁠www.decidedlywealth.com⁠⁠</a></p><p> </p><p><strong>CONNECT WITH DON MOORE</strong></p><p><strong>Don’s Faculty Website: </strong><a href="https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://haas.berkeley.edu/faculty/moore-don/⁠</a> </p><p><strong>Don’s Lab Website: </strong><a href="https://learnmoore.org/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://learnmoore.org/⁠</a> </p><p><strong>X: </strong>@donandrewmoore </p><p><strong>LinkedIn: </strong><a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://www.linkedin.com/in/don-moore-01725b/⁠</a> </p><p><strong>Books: </strong><a href="https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&amp;visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&amp;ref_=ap_rdr" rel="ugc noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">⁠https://www.amazon.com/stores/author/B083M5M6X4/allbooks?ingress=0&amp;visitId=54bc4249-8552-4de4-bbed-b4ac6d41d5ec&amp;ref_=ap_rdr⁠</a>  </p><p><br /></p><p>Don Moore holds the Lorraine Tyson Mitchell Chair in Leadership at the Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley. His research interests include overconfidence, including when people think they are better than they actually are, when people think they are better than others, and when they are too sure they know the truth.  He is only occasionally overconfident. </p>