Bond Vigilantes, Innovation Exemptions, & Fee Switches: Inside the CFB Q4 Outlook

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 1, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA for a discussion spanning macro, global rates and on-chain markets. BEA revisions to how it prices portfolio management, software and legal services helped pull August core PCE down to 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus, and October rate hike odds fell to roughly 35%. The UK 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% for the first time since 1998. Crypto kept rallying after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15. The team ties these threads to the central finding of the Q4 2026 Market Outlook, "Numbers Over Narrative." Since June 30, the ten highest-revenue tokens in the CF investable universe returned about 80% on average, against roughly 18% for the ten lowest. The Outlook is free at cfbenchmarks.com under Research and Insights. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 00:49 – August Core PCE: Softer Inflation or a New Ruler? 07:39 – October Rate Hike Odds Halve, December Still Priced In 09:46 – September Scorecard: The CF DeFi Composite Outruns the Broad Market 11:21 – Why Crypto Rallied Through a Failed Clarity Vote 19:20 – UK 30-Year Gilt Hits 6%: Fiscal Stress or Higher Real Yields? 23:20 – Interest Expense, Treasury Buybacks & the Intervention Question 28:51 – What to Watch: Peripheral Spreads, Auction Tails & the TGA 31:05 – Bond ETF Inflows, Pensions & the Coupon Case for Duration 36:15 – Q4 Outlook: Numbers Over Narrative 37:06 – Macro Backdrop: Thin Consumer Cushion & the Fed's Path 40:55 – Revenue to Be Rewarded: Fee Switches & Token Returns 43:30 – Tokenized Equities Scale Toward $3 Billion 46:43 – Beyond Crypto: Single Stock Perps & 24/7 Markets 48:18 – U.S. Perps Ahead: HIP-3, Retail vs. Institutions & Producer Hedging 52:14 – Bitcoin 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions Update 55:07 – Week Ahead: Jobs, FOMC Minutes, Senate Recess, ETF Flows & Treasury Auctions