CFB Talks Digital Assets

In this week’s CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 22, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and special guest Ben Gray, Kraken’s Chief Legal Officer, for a discussion spanning macro, markets and regulation. Bitcoin traded near $82,000 as a tech-led, risk-off rotation hit equities, with the 10-year Treasury yield near 5% and Brent crude above $110. Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows continued, yet leverage and macro headlines kept pressure on price. The panel then turns to the regulatory calendar. The OCC finalized the first federal rule under the GENIUS Act on October 21, and the Senate’s September 15 cloture vote on the CLARITY Act failed 49 to 50. Ben explains what both mean for stablecoin rewards, trust charters and a market structure framework now being written by agencies rather than Congress. Chapters: 00:00 Intro & Welcome 02:41 Meet Ben Gray: From Federal Regulator to Kraken CLO 07:35 Bitcoin Near $82K: Tech Rotation & the ETF Flow Divergence 18:30 The OCC Finalizes Its First GENIUS Act Rule 21:17 Stablecoin Rewards: How Regulators Will Judge Yield 26:40 Banks vs. Stablecoins: Lobbying & the ICBA Lawsuit 35:28 Rules Without Congress: What the SEC & CFTC Can Deliver 39:02 Five-Year Exemptions & the SEC to CFTC Handoff 43:17 How Sticky Is Agency Rulemaking? 46:00 The SEC Innovation Exemption: Scope & Early Uptake 48:50 Week Ahead: FOMC, Big Tech Earnings & PCE 54:43 Ben’s Watchlist: Midterms & the CFTC’s Exchange Framework

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 15, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby is joined by Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk. Special guest Bivu Das, Kraken’s UK General Manager and head of Payment Services, also joins to discuss the team’s new paper on stablecoin payments infrastructure. The first half unpacks where banks and fintechs are starting with stablecoins, why balances are the most exposed pool of capital, and what Kraken’s agreed acquisition of a Lithuanian bank signals about crypto and TradFi convergence. The second half turns to macro: a hotter core CPI print, falling long-end yields, and whether the Fed should hold or hike at its October meeting. Chapters: 00:00 Intro & Team Welcome 02:19 Meet Bivu Das: Kraken UK & Payment Services 03:40 Stablecoins & the Opportunity 05:08 What Banks & Fintechs Want from Stablecoins 08:42 Three Pools of Capital: Which Gets Disrupted First? 17:04 Kraken’s Bank Acquisition 21:42 Stablecoin Yield: GENIUS, the OCC & MiCA 27:08 Central Banks Pilot Stablecoin Rails 29:34 Is Deposit Flight Overblown? 35:41 Fixing Fiat On & Off Ramps 39:32 Macro: Hot Core CPI, Falling Yields 41:11 October FOMC: Hike or Hold? 45:23 Why Long-End Yields Fell Despite Inflation 50:39 Rate Hikes Before Elections: What History Says 56:09 Bitcoin Key Levels 57:33 Week Ahead: Earnings, Auctions & GENIUS Comments

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 8, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA, is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA, for a wide-ranging discussion of macro, earnings and crypto market structure. With the 10-year Treasury yield near 5.3%, its highest level since 2002, and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting pointing to another rate increase this year, the panel examines what higher yields mean for risk assets and bank balance sheets. Against that backdrop, expected Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of nearly 29.5% brings corporate performance and AI capital spending into focus. The conversation then turns to September’s divergent altcoin returns, the SEC’s innovation exemption and the proposed accredited investor exam. Chapters 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 01:16 – Market Check: Bitcoin Rejected at $87K as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5.3% 02:27 – On Our Screens: Retracement Levels, Moving Averages & Crude Oil 11:10 – Implied Rate Path: October Pause, December in Focus 12:59 – Labor Market: Cracks or Just a Lull? 15:04 – The Fed’s Breadth Problem: Healthcare Carries Job Growth 22:07 – The Disconnect: Yields at 2002 Levels, Equities Near Highs 23:56 – Why Real Yields Are Rising: Deficits & AI Hyperscaler Capital Needs 26:59 – Bond Losses & Bank Balance Sheets: Revisiting the SVB Playbook 30:35 – Who Is Buying the Debt? 32:27 – Late-Cycle Rally, Concentration Risk & What Could Break It 36:27 – Q3 Earnings Preview: 29.5% Growth Led by Energy, Tech & Communication Services 39:14 – AI Earnings, Bank Dealmaking & Estimate Revisions 42:20 – Returns on CapEx: Free Cash Flow & Hyperscaler Financing 44:32 – September Attribution: Fundamentals & Fee Revenue Drive Altcoin Gains 45:41 – Sector Dispersion: DeFi Outpaces Equities, Bitcoin Dominance Holds Near 60% 48:23 – Innovation Exemption & the Regulatory Catalyst Pipeline 59:31 – Week Ahead: Bank Earnings, CPI, PPI & ETF Flows

In this week's CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded October 1, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA is joined by Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk and Kraken's Chief Economist Thomas Perfumo, CFA for a discussion spanning macro, global rates and on-chain markets. BEA revisions to how it prices portfolio management, software and legal services helped pull August core PCE down to 3.0%, below the 3.3% consensus, and October rate hike odds fell to roughly 35%. The UK 30-year gilt yield crossed 6% for the first time since 1998. Crypto kept rallying after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15. The team ties these threads to the central finding of the Q4 2026 Market Outlook, "Numbers Over Narrative." Since June 30, the ten highest-revenue tokens in the CF investable universe returned about 80% on average, against roughly 18% for the ten lowest. The Outlook is free at cfbenchmarks.com under Research and Insights. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Team Welcome 00:49 – August Core PCE: Softer Inflation or a New Ruler? 07:39 – October Rate Hike Odds Halve, December Still Priced In 09:46 – September Scorecard: The CF DeFi Composite Outruns the Broad Market 11:21 – Why Crypto Rallied Through a Failed Clarity Vote 19:20 – UK 30-Year Gilt Hits 6%: Fiscal Stress or Higher Real Yields? 23:20 – Interest Expense, Treasury Buybacks & the Intervention Question 28:51 – What to Watch: Peripheral Spreads, Auction Tails & the TGA 31:05 – Bond ETF Inflows, Pensions & the Coupon Case for Duration 36:15 – Q4 Outlook: Numbers Over Narrative 37:06 – Macro Backdrop: Thin Consumer Cushion & the Fed's Path 40:55 – Revenue to Be Rewarded: Fee Switches & Token Returns 43:30 – Tokenized Equities Scale Toward $3 Billion 46:43 – Beyond Crypto: Single Stock Perps & 24/7 Markets 48:18 – U.S. Perps Ahead: HIP-3, Retail vs. Institutions & Producer Hedging 52:14 – Bitcoin 10-Year Capital Market Assumptions Update 55:07 – Week Ahead: Jobs, FOMC Minutes, Senate Recess, ETF Flows & Treasury Auctions

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained." With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space 02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout 07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect 09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal 12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels 14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation 19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained 23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand 26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust 32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha 39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible? 42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate 46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply 47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk 51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch