The Bitcoin Bottom Explained

In the latest CF Benchmarks live X Space, recorded September 24, 2026, Head of Research Gabe Selby, CFA and Research Analyst Mark Pilipczuk are joined by Bitwise Europe's Head of Research André Dragosch and Research Analyst Max Shannon to unpack the two teams' joint report, "The Bitcoin Bottom Explained." With the US 10-year yield above 5.1% and the Fed back in hiking mode, the panel first weighs whether the sovereign bond rout spills over into equities and crypto. The conversation then turns to the two independent frameworks, Bitwise's on-chain model and the CF Benchmarks market cycle engine, that both point to June 30 at $58,000 as the likely cycle low, before stress-testing the bear case and closing with the week ahead. Chapters: 00:00 – Intro & Welcome: Bitwise Europe Joins the Space 02:29 – The Global Sovereign Bond Rout 07:26 – MOVE vs VIX: A Bond-Equity Disconnect 09:28 – Is the Fed Behind the Curve? The Shadow Rate Signal 12:07 – Crypto Check-In: ETF Flows & Key Levels 14:44 – CME Basis Expansion & the ETH/BTC Rotation 19:45 – The Bitcoin Bottom Explained 23:31 – Bitwise's On-Chain Model: Seller Exhaustion Meets Demand 26:01 – CFB's Market Cycle Engine: Regimes, Breadth & Thrust 32:56 – Forward Returns & Regime-Flip Alpha 39:16 – Steelmanning the Bears: Is Another Leg Down Possible? 42:58 – M2 Growth, Correlations & the Decoupling Debate 46:19 – The Alligator Jaw: Bitcoin vs Global Money Supply 47:38 – AI Equity Rollover Risk 51:58 – Week Ahead: Key Things to Watch