Cross Party Lines

Hosted by Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson, Cross Party Lines delivers the special midterm episode they promised on Monday — and by God, did it deliver. Democrats take the Senate 54-46, the House comfortably, and governorships in Texas, Ohio and Iowa. Chris calls it an election of the magnitude of 1958, 1974 and 1994. Phil calls it a clear rejection of Trumpism by middle America. And with two days until New Zealand votes, both men think the lessons couldn’t be more timely. Thanks to our foundational partner, Frank Risk Management. The 100% Kiwi Owned Insurance brokerage. In this episode: * The Senate: six seats flipped, the solid South returns — for the Democrats — North and South Carolina, Kansas, Ohio, Iowa and Maine all fell to the Democrats. Susan Collins — the last Northeastern liberal Republican — is gone, her seat held by Republicans since 1978. South Carolina, unseen as a Democratic seat since Fritz Hollings in the nineties, flipped because Trump imposed an unqualified candidate on the party. Mississippi is still outstanding, decided by 28 votes. Chris’s verdict: this is worse than Watergate for the Republican Party. Phil’s: Nixon at least looks sane by comparison. * The House, the governorships and the gerrymander that backfired — Democrats are well over the majority needed in the House. Texas flips to Democrats for the first time since Ann Richards lost to George W. Bush in 1994. Ohio’s Ramaswamy — who ran an advertisement mocking the governor-elect’s estranged mother — goes down in flames. Iowa goes Democratic in both the Senate and the governorship. The redistricting Trump ordered mid-decade, designed to protect Republican seats in North Carolina, Texas and Florida, has achieved nothing except damaging the Republican Party’s reputation. Chris’s lesson: do not engage in those tactics. They are low, dishonest, corrupt, and the people don’t like it. Phil draws the direct New Zealand parallel: the Mowbray and Brash vote-splitting campaign deserves the same repudiation. * What it means — and what it doesn’t — Phil and Chris are genuinely elated but disciplined about what tonight actually delivers. Democrats control the legislative agenda, confirmations and — most importantly — the power of scrutiny. Sunlight, as Oliver Wendell Holmes said, is the best disinfectant, and there is a treasure trove of barely concealed corruption waiting for congressional committees. But Trump retains executive power, can veto legislation, and the structural problems — redistricting, presidential pardons, Supreme Court packing — won’t be fixed by this result alone. Chris sees it as part of a broader global pattern: Hungary, Serbia, Reform UK under pressure, populism starting to be rejected. Phil is more cautious: the new Jerusalem hasn’t arrived. But middle America has risen up, and that is a beautiful thing. Back home with two days to go: Michael Laws’ comments about his opponent’s appearance are the most damaging thing to happen to New Zealand First in the final stretch of the campaign. Phil notes Stuart Nash was sacked for far less. Peters tried to claim Laws was speaking as a private citizen rather than a candidate, then had to row back. Youth unemployment is at its highest since the Richardson-Bolger era. And the 1-News Varian poll showing ACT and New Zealand First each down two points suggests — Phil hopes — that New Zealanders are reacting against those trying to distort the proportional system, just as Americans reacted against the gerrymander. Phil and Chris will be at RNZ on Saturday night so tune in. Cross Party Lines exists to lift political literacy and create space for calm, good-faith political conversation. Follow us on Spotify, Apple, or wherever you listen to podcasts. 📋 New Zealand votes Saturday 7 November. Two days. Make it count. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crosspartylines.substack.com

Hosted by Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson, Cross Party Lines delivers its final episode before New Zealand votes on Saturday — and the word of the week is vote splitting. With over 900,000 early votes already cast, the boys do a full tour of the battleground seats, make their US midterm predictions, and don’t hold back on the forces they believe are trying to rot the democratic system from the inside. Thanks to Frank Risk Management - New Zealand 100% Kiwi-owned Insurance Brokerage. In this episode: * Vote splitting, overhangs and the billionaires gaming MMP — The Mowbray family — New Zealand’s wealthiest — and Don Brash are openly urging voters to split their vote in ways designed to engineer a parliamentary overhang, giving the centre-right more seats than their proportion of the vote entitles them to. Phil is unambiguous: Harry Mowbray admitted on air they were trying to rot the MMP system. Both Luxon and Key have told their own voters not to do it. Chris cannot understand why the National Party is not hammering that message in Tāmaki. If the overhang lands at ten seats, New Zealand gets 130 MPs, proportionality is destroyed, and the government that results lacks a genuine democratic mandate. * US midterm predictions — and the world is watching — With the American midterms landing this week, both men make their calls. Chris: Democrats win at least 235 House seats, Senate goes 52-48 to Democrats. Phil: broadly agrees but flags gerrymandering giving Republicans a nine-seat structural advantage in the House, and notes that Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans — If the Senate goes 52-48 to Democrats, Trump faces two years of congressional investigation, constrained executive power, and the possibility of impeachment proceedings. Phil notes his speeches have doubled in length, become more meandering and more profane since 2016 — and that he recently told the same story twice in one rally. Chris adds: his proposal to ban Norwegian immigration because Norway didn’t give him the Nobel Peace Prize is not the behaviour of a man in full command of his faculties. * Seat by seat: the races worth watching on Saturday night — Phil and Chris do a full tour, from Auckland to Banks Peninsula, they make their calls for the interesting races and who’s going to win them. Along the way: Phil calling Mercury Energy arrogant b******s on Ryan Bridge after three weeks of unanswered correspondence about a $260 meter fee; Chris still waiting on Air New Zealand over the Gisborne plane swap; Brazil’s Lula winning a fourth term and raising two fingers to the Monroe Doctrine; Serbia’s student party defeating the pro-Russia strongman; Israel’s election leaving Netanyahu weakened but not gone, with Arab parties now holding nineteen seats. Cross Party Lines exists to lift political literacy and create space for calm, good-faith political conversation. New episodes every Tuesday. If you value thoughtful debate, follow the podcast and share it with someone who might too. 📋 Election day is Saturday 7 November. Vote. And party vote wisely. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crosspartylines.substack.com

Hosted by Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson, Cross Party Lines returns with twelve days to go — early voting open, the rolls closed, and the campaign entering its most consequential stretch. This week: the threat to politicians’ personal safety, the Labour candidate stood down over the gang visit, a Future Generations Commissioner that Chris is openly evangelical about, and New Zealand First’s $71 billion in promises with no plan to pay for them. All thanks to our foundational partner, Frank Risk Management, the 100% Kiwi-owned insurance brokerage. In this episode: * The safety of politicians — and the democracy it protects — The episode opens on a subject both men clearly feel deeply: the attack on Australian independent MP Helen Haines, who lost both legs, is the most extreme example of a trend that Australian authorities say has seen serious death threats against politicians rise from 300 to over 1,000 a year. Speaker Brownlee is saying the same thing here. But what troubles both men most is not personal risk — it’s what the threat to accessibility does to democracy. The intimate, open character of New Zealand politics, where MPs run caravan stops and constituent clinics without security details, is one of its finest features. Lose that, and something irreplaceable goes with it. * The gang visit fallout, Kerrin Leoni and the one rule you must never break — Chris Hipkins announced the resignation of the Labour candidate for Tāmaki Makaurau after she was photographed at the Mongrel Mob pad and — more damagingly — gave inconsistent accounts of her involvement, including on a televised debate. Phil is unequivocal: Hipkins had no alternative. Chris applies the same historical verdict: John Key’s standing instruction to his cabinet was tell me everything, not a sanitised version, because he could only help you if he knew the full story. She didn’t. * The Parliamentary Budget Office, a Future Generations Commissioner and $71 billion of moonbeams — The most substantive policy discussion of the episode. The Greens have costed New Zealand First’s promises at $71 billion — and that’s before Ron Mark’s pledge to take defence to 3% of GDP. There is still no New Zealand First fiscal plan. On the Parliamentary Budget Office, both men have been calling for it all season and are genuinely heartened: Labour, the Greens and TOP have all endorsed it, National softly, and the Greens’ costing of New Zealand First’s promises is the best possible advertisement for why it matters. On TOP’s Future Generations Commissioner, Chris calls it a brilliant, practical mechanism for breaking the five-minute political horizon — especially on AI, infrastructure and climate. Phil is cautiously supportive but wants evidence it won’t become another parking lot for hard problems. Along the way: three hundred thousand eligible voters who never enrolled and Luxon saying he’s comfortable with that and a promise that next week’s episode will cover the US midterm predictions, the key electoral battlegrounds, and — depending on timing — possibly an election night special. Cross Party Lines exists to lift political literacy and create space for calm, good-faith political conversation. New episodes every Tuesday. If you value thoughtful debate, follow the podcast and share it with someone who might too. 📋 Early voting is open now. Election day is 7 November. Make sure everyone you know has voted. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crosspartylines.substack.com

Hosted by Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson, Cross Party Lines reaches its 50th episode — just over a year in, and with an audience that has grown beyond either man expected. They mark the occasion the way they mark everything: with a tribute, a historical detour, and absolutely no let-up on the campaign. Three weeks out from election day, there’s too much to get through. Thanks to Frank Risk Management, the 100% Kiwi owned Insurance Brokerage. In this episode: * Gang pads, political missteps and the skeleton in everyone’s closet — The Greens and Te Pāti Māori’s visit to a Mongrel Mob pad — photographed against gang patches — draws Phil’s bluntest assessment of the campaign: stupid, naive, and politically self-destructive in precisely the seats the Greens need to hold. But Phil won’t leave the history untouched. Muldoon funded millions into gang work schemes. Chris’s concern is different but equally sharp: in a campaign where repetition and message discipline are everything, going off-script to cozy up to organised crime in the final weeks is an act of self-indulgence that could cost the Greens two or three points — and potentially their Wellington North seat. * Peters unilateral at the UN, the right to silence and a missing fiscal plan — New Zealand voted against a World Health Organization resolution on pandemic preparedness — alongside the United States, Israel and one other country, against 154 nations. Phil is unambiguous: this was Peters playing to his anti-vax base using New Zealand’s international reputation as a chip. Chris reports that National ministers wanted to vote for the resolution. Both ask the same question: did it go to cabinet? If so, Luxon owns it. If not, the coalition is more out of control than anyone has acknowledged. * Māori seats, the TOP threshold and the defining moment that hasn’t happened yet — Phil gives his most detailed read of the Māori electorates: Labour likely to pick up three seats, Ikaroa-Rāwhiti safe with Cushla Tangaere-Manuel, Te Tai Tonga a genuine contest, Te Tai Tokerau close but leaning Labour’s way. Chris keeps a close eye on Te Tai Hauauru — formerly Tariana’s stronghold, now genuinely split — and notes Willie Jackson’s bold declaration at Adrian Rurawhe’s tangihanga that it was now Labour’s marae earned him a look that suggested otherwise. Then there’s the defining moment question: could the gang visit be this campaign’s Metiria Turei? Could there be a Peter Dunne common-sense moment that shifts 15% of undecideds overnight? Both men think the race is not yet settled, and Gerald Ford’s Poland moment — and Biden’s 2024 implosion — are offered as reminders of how fast things can move. Along the way: the 50th episode milestone and why people keep stopping Chris at airports to say they appreciate civilised disagreement; Marilyn Waring ringing to correct the OIA history and give proper credit to Mike Minogue; a tribute to Geoff Thompson, former member for Horowhenua, who passed away this week. Cross Party Lines exists to lift political literacy and create space for calm, good-faith political conversation. New episodes every Tuesday. If you value thoughtful debate, follow the podcast and share it with someone who might too. 📋 Election day is 7 November. Make sure you’re enrolled — and make sure everyone you know is too. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crosspartylines.substack.com

Hosted by Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson, Cross Party Lines battles on with Phil broadcasting through a lurgy picked up on the flight home from Australia — it’s an episode that moves from the campaign’s most mean-spirited policies to OIA reform, a hilariously hapless New Zealand First list, and the American midterms closing in on the Republicans like a freight train. All thanks to Frank Risk Management, the 100% Kiwi-Owned Insurance Brokerage. Find out more at frankrisk.co.nz. In this episode: * Foreign aid cuts, drug testing and the return of compassionate conservatism — in theory — National and ACT’s decision to slash overseas aid draws Phil’s sharpest moral language of the season: we spend 0.24% of GDP on foreign aid, the international goal is 0.7%, and the cuts will fall on humanitarian crisis relief — Gaza, Ukraine, the World Food Programme, UNHCR. Chris is equally unimpressed — and notes the whole exercise is likely to be reversed anyway, given Peters has already come out against it. On drug testing for beneficiaries, both men defer to Jonathan Coleman who wrote a lengthy Herald piece calling the policy wrong, unprincipled and ineffective. * Air New Zealand, OIA reform and the right of the citizen to know — Chris’s flight from Gisborne was cancelled, supposedly due to weather — suffice to say he wanted to know more about Labour’s consumer policy package, which mandates automatic refunds for cancelled or significantly delayed flights, levels the playing field for smaller regional carriers, and takes aim at airport monopoly pricing. On OIA reform, Chris is in full historical mode: the Official Information Act was a complete philosophical switch from the Official Secrets Act — from withholding as default to availability as default, built on the work of Ken Keith, Alan Danks and Jim McLay. What is happening now, across multiple governments but accelerating under this one, is a quiet reversal of that principle. * New Zealand First’s list, the midterms and Trump renames the ocean — Chris turns to the New Zealand First list and cannot contain himself: Ron Mark at number 16, behind Hārete Hipango and Alfred Ngaro. He applies the Hanoverian principle — anyone who looks like a potential successor gets marked down — and notes Peters describing the list as representing rejuvenation after 50 years of his own continuous political presence. Stuart Nash and Shane Jones are in there. Michael Laws features, and Chris declines to comment further on defamation grounds. On the American midterms, both men identify their must-watch races: South Carolina — a seat Democrats haven’t held since the 1990s, now within a point or two — and Kansas, which hasn’t returned a Democratic senator since 1938, and is now genuinely in play. If both flip, Democrats could reach 55 or 56 Senate seats. Along the way: Phil’s voice threatening to become a high-pitched squeal when Trump comes up; Chris being recognised at Gisborne Airport and told he looks better in person than on screen; a man on the airport bus praising Phil’s tenure as Foreign Affairs Minister; and the promise of a full American election deep-dive next week, Cross Party Lines exists to lift political literacy and create space for calm, good-faith political conversation. New episodes every Tuesday. If you value thoughtful debate, follow the podcast and share it with someone who might too. 📋 Election day is 7 November. Make sure you’re enrolled. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crosspartylines.substack.com