Vote Splitting, MMP Mandates and Saturday’s Battlegrounds

Hosted by Phil Goff and Chris Finlayson, Cross Party Lines delivers its final episode before New Zealand votes on Saturday — and the word of the week is vote splitting. With over 900,000 early votes already cast, the boys do a full tour of the battleground seats, make their US midterm predictions, and don’t hold back on the forces they believe are trying to rot the democratic system from the inside. Thanks to Frank Risk Management - New Zealand 100% Kiwi-owned Insurance Brokerage. In this episode: * Vote splitting, overhangs and the billionaires gaming MMP — The Mowbray family — New Zealand’s wealthiest — and Don Brash are openly urging voters to split their vote in ways designed to engineer a parliamentary overhang, giving the centre-right more seats than their proportion of the vote entitles them to. Phil is unambiguous: Harry Mowbray admitted on air they were trying to rot the MMP system. Both Luxon and Key have told their own voters not to do it. Chris cannot understand why the National Party is not hammering that message in Tāmaki. If the overhang lands at ten seats, New Zealand gets 130 MPs, proportionality is destroyed, and the government that results lacks a genuine democratic mandate. * US midterm predictions — and the world is watching — With the American midterms landing this week, both men make their calls. Chris: Democrats win at least 235 House seats, Senate goes 52-48 to Democrats. Phil: broadly agrees but flags gerrymandering giving Republicans a nine-seat structural advantage in the House, and notes that Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans — If the Senate goes 52-48 to Democrats, Trump faces two years of congressional investigation, constrained executive power, and the possibility of impeachment proceedings. Phil notes his speeches have doubled in length, become more meandering and more profane since 2016 — and that he recently told the same story twice in one rally. Chris adds: his proposal to ban Norwegian immigration because Norway didn’t give him the Nobel Peace Prize is not the behaviour of a man in full command of his faculties. * Seat by seat: the races worth watching on Saturday night — Phil and Chris do a full tour, from Auckland to Banks Peninsula, they make their calls for the interesting races and who’s going to win them. Along the way: Phil calling Mercury Energy arrogant b******s on Ryan Bridge after three weeks of unanswered correspondence about a $260 meter fee; Chris still waiting on Air New Zealand over the Gisborne plane swap; Brazil’s Lula winning a fourth term and raising two fingers to the Monroe Doctrine; Serbia’s student party defeating the pro-Russia strongman; Israel’s election leaving Netanyahu weakened but not gone, with Arab parties now holding nineteen seats. Cross Party Lines exists to lift political literacy and create space for calm, good-faith political conversation. New episodes every Tuesday. If you value thoughtful debate, follow the podcast and share it with someone who might too. 📋 Election day is Saturday 7 November. Vote. And party vote wisely. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit crosspartylines.substack.com