The Punch List

In Episode 12 of The Punch List Podcast, Jon Wright, Kanav Hasija, and Tanmaya Kala cover three forces shaping construction and development right now: the Bay Area's AI-fueled comeback and the utility bottleneck holding projects back, why condos have nearly vanished from new construction in California, and how a fast-splitting market of AI agents is changing the day-to-day for project managers and developers. This episode is an honest look at what is actually going on, with no filter. Three people who operate inside the AEC industry, not outside it, sharing what they see on the ground and the tools they actually use. What You'll Hear Why the Bay Area went from "don't touch it with a ten foot pole" to the hottest market in the world, while Southern California faces more structural challenges Jon on utility interconnection taking 6 to 12 months, and why long switchgear lead times are back Kanav's math on AI IPOs: about $4.2 trillion in first-day value from 3,300 tech IPOs since 1980, against roughly $5.2 trillion from SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI combined Why newly minted Bay Area wealth will push up luxury housing demand, and why regulators need to add supply now What Austin and Texas got right by building enough supply to keep prices in check TK's three-part condo problem: construction defect liability, insurance costs 3 to 4 times higher, and NIMBYism Jon on how condos went from almost 30% of California new construction starts to under 4% after SB 800 and its ten year liability tail Why Jon says 100% of new condo builds end up in litigation, and why moisture readings are a common trigger Buffy Wicks's condo liability reform bill that failed this year, and why it is coming back Why general contractors say pricing looks steady only because volume is low, and why you should underwrite a price increase when the boom hits Meta's new Muse personal AI assistant and how it stacks up against the other agents Kanav on the AI market splitting up: Claude for complex work, OpenAI's Astra for computer use, Grok Bot for cheap daily tasks, and Muse for consumers Why a small classifier model can sort invoices, support tickets, and cost codes about 100x cheaper and far faster than a large language model Why X is the best place to track AI, and how to ask your favorite model who to follow in construction and real estate TK on using Claude to compare estimates, contracts, and change orders across drawing iterations Kanav's steelman: employees showing up to offer letter conversations armed with AI-generated questions they don't fully understand Jon's picture of a project manager running bid leveling from a 45 minute commute with skill files and a mobile agent The story of a second-generation contractor who tried to vibe code his own bid leveling tool and got pointed to a finished product by Claude Jon on the family calendar agent and the two month minivan lease negotiation bot that beat the dealership Why AI is best at the mundane work, like coding invoices and checking subcontractor bills against contracts This Episode Is For You If You've Ever Asked Why is the Bay Area market turning around while Southern California struggles? Why does utility interconnection take so long, and how do I plan around it? Will the AI boom push Bay Area housing prices even higher? Why won't developers build condos in California anymore? Should I underwrite higher construction pricing on projects starting now? Which AI model should I use for which task? Can AI actually compare estimates, contracts, and change orders for me? How can a project manager use AI agents to cut down the paperwork? Is it worth connecting an AI agent to my email and calendar? How do I stay current on AI without the noise? Connect with us: Connect with Tanmaya Kala on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tanmaya-kala-pe-3324a13/ Connect with Jon Wright on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonpwright/ Connect with Kanav Hasija on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kanavhasija/ Listen to the full podcast on: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033OOZ7K5P9aDTX8opEYUo?si=2efcf20614814e44 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-punch-list/id6790447693 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepunchlistpod Stay Connected With The Punch List : Website: https://thepunchlistpod.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-punchlist-podcast/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepunchlistpod/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thepunchlistpod/ X: https://x.com/thepunchlistpod

In Episode 11 of The Punch List Podcast, Jon Wright, Kanav Hasija, and Tanmaya Kala cover three forces reshaping construction and development right now: record copper prices driven by the AI data center build-out, the aging skilled trades workforce and who replaces it, and the promise versus reality of office-to-residential conversions. This episode is an honest look at what is actually going on, with no filter. Three people who operate inside the AEC industry, not outside it, sharing what they see on the ground and what they think it means. What You'll Hear Why copper jumped roughly 20% in a year, from about $5.50 to $6.60 per pound, and why copper futures climbing 36% means the market is already forward booking TK's case for shifting more wiring from copper to aluminum, and why a Canadian supply chain makes it a safer bet on escalation Why data center builders won't swap out copper even as prices climb, when a proven 10-month build plan beats a 24-month experiment Jon on contingency, padding, and why forward contracts and options hedges are rarely used outside the largest developers How owners push material risk onto subcontractors with 60 and 90 day signing windows TK's argument that domestic copper sitting in the ground in Nevada, stuck in environmental review, may be the real long-term play Why a generation was told the trades were a step down, and how that decision is catching up with the industry today Kanav's comparison: a starting lawyer and a union electrician can both earn around $150K, but one carries $150K in debt and the other about $10K Why the hosts believe AI will come for white collar jobs long before it comes for the electrician Jon's take on the boomer retirement wave as a business acquisition opportunity for millennials and Gen Z already working in the trades Why TK leans on a strong superintendent in preconstruction, and why "just ask Claude" can't replace someone who has actually installed the work McKinsey's projection of roughly $200 trillion in global construction demand through 2040 against about $160 trillion in labor capacity, a 20% gap Why San Francisco office buildings have sold at up to 70% discounts, and why converting to biotech labs was a smarter play than residential Jon breaking down the four hurdles to office conversion: debt and "extend and pretend," the buyer-seller standoff, physical design, and zoning Why side-core buildings are the ones that actually work for conversion, and why most successful projects are likely subsidized TK on plumbing, hidden conditions behind every wall, and mandatory code upgrades that make conversion costs unpredictable Why California hospitals facing a 2030 code deadline are being torn down and rebuilt instead of repurposed National office vacancy rising from about 16% to 20%, with Boston now leading Class A office construction and the Bay Area at the bottom Jon on why workers will return to new, well-designed offices but not to "their father's office" Kanav's theory on why New York is the most capitalistic city in the world, and what mixed-use planning gets right How long commutes connect the trades shortage to the housing problem, and the case for factory-built construction This Episode Is For You If You've Ever Asked How is the AI data center boom affecting material costs on my projects? Should I be hedging copper, or just padding my contingency? Is aluminum wiring a realistic alternative to copper in commercial buildings? Who is going to replace the retiring skilled trades workforce? Is a career in the trades now a better deal than a college degree? Is there an opportunity to buy a trades business as owners retire? Why aren't more empty office buildings being converted into housing? Is it cheaper to convert an old building or tear it down and start over? Connect with us: Connect with Tanmaya Kala on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tanmaya-kala-pe-3324a13/ Connect with Jon Wright on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonpwright/ Connect with Kanav Hasija on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kanavhasija/ Listen to the full podcast on: **Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033OOZ7K5P9aDTX8opEYUo?si=2efcf20614814e44 **Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-punch-list/id6790447693 **YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepunchlistpod Stay Connected With The Punch List : Website: https://thepunchlistpod.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-punchlist-podcast/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepunchlistpod/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thepunchlistpod/ X: https://x.com/thepunchlistpod (00:00) - Intro (01:06) - Copper Price Surge (02:22) - Data Centers Won't Drop Copper (03:59) - Hedging and Contingency (05:31) - Risk and US Copper Supply (06:37) - The Trades Shortage (08:41) - Electrician vs Lawyer (10:03) - Trades for Our Kids? (11:54) - Buy a Trades Business (13:04) - Field Experience Wins (14:18) - Global Labor Gap (15:48) - Office Conversions (18:15) - Four Conversion Hurdles (21:29) - Why Conversions Fail (23:47) - Office Vacancy Trends (26:07) - The New Office Standard (27:15) - Mixed-Use Cities (29:20) - New York's Money Loop (30:20) - Commutes and Housing (31:29) - Factory Construction

In Episode 10 of The Punch List Podcast, Jon Wright, Kanav Hasija, and Tanmaya Kala cover three things happening in the real world of construction and development right now: the Dubai construction boom, the uncertainty around interest rates and bond markets, and the AI regulation debate that took over the industry conversation over the weekend. This episode is an honest look at what is actually going on, with no filter. Three people who operate inside the AEC industry, not outside it, sharing what they see on the ground and what they think it means. What You'll Hear Why Dubai's residential market shrugged off the war while hospitality fell from 85% occupancy to single digits overnight How GCs in Dubai are self-performing all trades and what that vertical integration model means for quality, margins, and the future of specialization Why Sobha Realty, an $8 billion fully vertically integrated developer, is widely considered to produce the best finished product in the region TK's theory on why immature markets trend toward vertical integration and whether fragmentation eventually comes back Why cost estimates in Dubai routinely come in 50% below final cost and what that says about where the market is in its maturity Jon breaking down the difference between the Fed short rate and the bond market long rate, and why most people have it wrong Why construction loan costs, steel prices, diesel, and copper are all moving in the same direction at the same time How AI data center construction is adding borrowing pressure to the broader bond market and what that means for the long rate Kanav's controversial read on why Dario Amodei, Sam Altman, and Elon Musk all agreed publicly in the same weekend to slow down AI development Why Kanav, as an Anthropic investor, still thinks the slowdown call is more about IPO narrative than genuine risk The actual facts behind the Hugging Face hacking incident, what OpenAI confirmed, what Hugging Face confirmed, and what nobody knows yet because the prompt logs have not been released Why Kanav says the 2024 AI blackmail story falls apart once you know it took 38 rounds of prompting to get there TK's argument that we are already building physical infrastructure AI could eventually exploit, and why regulation now matters more than regulation later Jon on regulatory capture: what it means, whether it applies here, and why he still wants the labs to show us the data Kanav's simpler fix for the rogue nation threat: stop selling Claude outside the US. No Washington hearing required. Why anyone designing, building, or supplying data centers needs to pay attention to where this AI regulation debate lands This Episode Is For You If You've Ever Asked Why is Dubai building so fast with 20-year-old technology? What is actually happening with interest rates and why is the long rate going up even when the Fed cuts? Is the AI slowdown call from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google genuine or is there something else going on? What really happened with the Hugging Face hacking incident and should I be worried about it? How do I think about AI risk as someone who builds physical things? If there is a regulation pause on AI, what does that mean for data center construction in the near term? The conversation this weekend around AI was loud. But the loudest voices in the room are also the ones with IPOs on the street and capital needs to meet. That matters. Meanwhile, the bond market is doing something real, Dubai is building towers faster than anyone thought possible with technology you would not recognize as modern, and the construction industry is sitting at the intersection of all of it. Connect with us: [LinkedIn / Website, if applicable] Connect with Tanmaya Kala on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tanmaya-kala-pe-3324a13/ Connect with Jon Wright on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonpwright/ Connect with Kanav Hasija on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kanavhasija/ Listen to the full podcast on: **Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033OOZ7K5P9aDTX8opEYUo?si=2efcf20614814e44** **Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-punch-list/id6790447693** **YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepunchlistpod** Stay Connected With The Punch List : **Website: https://thepunchlistpod.com/** **LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-punchlist-podcast/** **Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepunchlistpod/** **Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thepunchlistpod/** **X: https://x.com/thepunchlistpod** (00:00) - Intro (00:53) - Dubai Market Is Ripping (02:23) - The Master Builder Model (03:55) - Sobha Realty Breakdown (04:57) - Why Dubai Is Booming (06:56) - Will Integration Last? (09:58) - Dubai's Budget Overrun Problem (11:36) - Dubai vs. US Cost Estimating (12:30) - Fed Rates Explained (14:49) - Why Long Rates Keep Rising (17:48) - How Rates Hit Construction (19:31) - AI Stocks vs. The Real Economy (21:39) - Steel Lead Times Are Insane (22:59) - AI Labs Drama Explodes (24:30) - The Hype Cycle Argument (26:48) - The Controversial IPO Theory (30:15) - What Is Regulatory Capture? (33:42) - The Hugging Face Hack (40:59) - Can AI Actually Self-Improve? (44:11) - Rogue Nations & Infrastructure Risk (46:34) - Just Stop Selling AI Abroad? (48:51) - What This Means for Data Centers

In this episode of The Punchlist Podcast, Jon Wright, Kanav Hasija, and Tanmaya Kala take an honest look at what's actually happening with AI in the architecture, engineering, and construction industry right now. Drawing from their experience as founders, developers, and operators inside the industry, they walk through the real state of AI adoption, why most demos fail, and what firms should actually be doing to prepare. This episode is an invitation to cut through the noise, get practical about how you evaluate AI tools, and understand where the real gains are coming from and where they aren't yet. What You'll Hear Why construction and engineering firms are experiencing AI demo burnout and what's actually causing it How unfinished AI products are burning out the market and creating a false belief that AI doesn't work Why construction is one of the most complex human endeavors and why most AI startups underestimate it Kanav's two-day vendor test that replaces four months of painful evaluation The three things every AEC firm should do right now without a big budget Why organizing your own data is the most future-proof move you can make today Jon's argument for why documenting your firm's knowledge and processes is the highest-leverage action right now TK's process-first framework and why letting tools drive your process is dangerous Why the S&P 500 net margins and sales growth are going down when you strip out AI producers Where small, AI-native businesses are actually seeing real gains including skipping hires and moving faster on revenue Kanav's honest read on the AI hype cycle even as an Anthropic investor Why a correction is coming and what to do with your balance sheet before it hits This Episode Is For You If You've Ever Asked Why do the AI demos always look great but fail on our actual data? What should we actually be doing right now without a massive budget? Are other businesses really seeing dollar gains from AI or is it just talk? How do I evaluate an AI vendor without burning four months on it? Where is AI genuinely useful in construction and where is it not? Is the AI hype cycle real and are we at the top of it? What happens to my business if there's a correction in the next two years? AI in construction isn't about buying the next shiny tool. It's about understanding the technology well enough to know where it helps, building the internal systems to evaluate it fast, and organizing your data so you're ready when the real gains arrive. The firms that do that work now will be the ones that benefit most when the hype settles and the real era of AI adoption begins. You don't have to overhaul everything at once. Start by swimming in the technology yourself. Start by building one tough test. Start by cleaning up your data. Connect with us: Connect with Tanmaya Kala on LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/tanmaya-kala-pe-3324a13/ Connect with Jon Wright on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonpwright/ Connect with Kanav Hasija on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kanavhasija/ Listen to the full podcast on: Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033OOZ7K5P9aDTX8opEYUo?si=2efcf20614814e44 Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-punch-list/id6790447693 YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepunchlistpod Stay Connected With The Punch List : Website: https://thepunchlistpod.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-punchlist-podcast/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepunchlistpod/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thepunchlistpod/ X: https://x.com/thepunchlistpod (00:00) - Trailer (00:38) - Intro starts (hosts introduce themselves) (01:06) - Topics overview announced (02:07) - Deep dive into AI demo burnout begins (04:00) - Discussion of the 150-180 startups per year (06:06) - Admin burnout & vendor responsibility (07:05) - Illusion of explanatory depth concept (12:00) - Reality gap discussion (20:00) - Preparation topic begins (25:00) - Real gains section starts (31:13) - S&P 500 ROI analysis (34:00) - Individual efficiency discussion (36:22) - Final thoughts on hype cycle (38:30) - Outro

Eric Lamb spent 45 years in construction. For 35 of them he sat on the founding management committee of DPR Construction, helping take it from a startup to a top-ten general contractor doing $14 billion a year. He's blunt about why an industry that can deliver an AI data center on an impossible schedule still crawls everywhere else, and the answer isn't permitting, labor, or technology. He joins Jon Wright, Kanav Hasija, and Tanmaya Kala to answer an uncomfortable question. If this industry can deliver an AI data center on a schedule no one thought possible, why does everything else still crawl? Eric's answer isn't permitting, labor, or technology. It's trust. He also walks through the investment DPR passed on in 2012, PlanGrid, which Autodesk later bought for $875 million, and the two lessons he took from it. Plus why AI in construction still needs a human sitting next to the field, and the one culture change he'd make at any contracting firm trying to grow. Guest: Eric Lamb, DPR Construction / WND Ventures / Blackhorn Ventures — linkedin.com/in/eric-lamb-084916 Topics Covered Why data centers get built fast and everything else doesn't The $875M investment DPR passed on, and the two lessons from it What AI in construction still can't do without a human in the field The culture change worth more than any software purchase Chapters (00:00) Introduction (02:17) What the D, the P, and the R stand for (04:15) The decision that mattered most and the values behind it (09:47) Building data centers in the 1980s (15:29) Are we creating our own bottlenecks? (17:19) The filter for construction tech investing (18:47) The PlanGrid pass and the $875M lesson (22:10) What GCs need that the market isn't building (24:38) Why margins are a thousand small mistakes avoided (30:04) The boardroom and operator divide on AI (33:35) Building DPR's estimating database in 1991 (37:58) Advice for executives growing a contracting business Connect with us: Connect with Tanmaya Kala on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tanmaya-kala-pe-3324a13/ Connect with Jon Wright on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonpwright/ Connect with Kanav Hasija on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kanavhasija/