The Careers That Will Survive AI

In Episode 11 of The Punch List Podcast, Jon Wright, Kanav Hasija, and Tanmaya Kala cover three forces reshaping construction and development right now: record copper prices driven by the AI data center build-out, the aging skilled trades workforce and who replaces it, and the promise versus reality of office-to-residential conversions. This episode is an honest look at what is actually going on, with no filter. Three people who operate inside the AEC industry, not outside it, sharing what they see on the ground and what they think it means. What You'll Hear Why copper jumped roughly 20% in a year, from about $5.50 to $6.60 per pound, and why copper futures climbing 36% means the market is already forward booking TK's case for shifting more wiring from copper to aluminum, and why a Canadian supply chain makes it a safer bet on escalation Why data center builders won't swap out copper even as prices climb, when a proven 10-month build plan beats a 24-month experiment Jon on contingency, padding, and why forward contracts and options hedges are rarely used outside the largest developers How owners push material risk onto subcontractors with 60 and 90 day signing windows TK's argument that domestic copper sitting in the ground in Nevada, stuck in environmental review, may be the real long-term play Why a generation was told the trades were a step down, and how that decision is catching up with the industry today Kanav's comparison: a starting lawyer and a union electrician can both earn around $150K, but one carries $150K in debt and the other about $10K Why the hosts believe AI will come for white collar jobs long before it comes for the electrician Jon's take on the boomer retirement wave as a business acquisition opportunity for millennials and Gen Z already working in the trades Why TK leans on a strong superintendent in preconstruction, and why "just ask Claude" can't replace someone who has actually installed the work McKinsey's projection of roughly $200 trillion in global construction demand through 2040 against about $160 trillion in labor capacity, a 20% gap Why San Francisco office buildings have sold at up to 70% discounts, and why converting to biotech labs was a smarter play than residential Jon breaking down the four hurdles to office conversion: debt and "extend and pretend," the buyer-seller standoff, physical design, and zoning Why side-core buildings are the ones that actually work for conversion, and why most successful projects are likely subsidized TK on plumbing, hidden conditions behind every wall, and mandatory code upgrades that make conversion costs unpredictable Why California hospitals facing a 2030 code deadline are being torn down and rebuilt instead of repurposed National office vacancy rising from about 16% to 20%, with Boston now leading Class A office construction and the Bay Area at the bottom Jon on why workers will return to new, well-designed offices but not to "their father's office" Kanav's theory on why New York is the most capitalistic city in the world, and what mixed-use planning gets right How long commutes connect the trades shortage to the housing problem, and the case for factory-built construction This Episode Is For You If You've Ever Asked How is the AI data center boom affecting material costs on my projects? Should I be hedging copper, or just padding my contingency? Is aluminum wiring a realistic alternative to copper in commercial buildings? Who is going to replace the retiring skilled trades workforce? Is a career in the trades now a better deal than a college degree? Is there an opportunity to buy a trades business as owners retire? Why aren't more empty office buildings being converted into housing? Is it cheaper to convert an old building or tear it down and start over? Connect with us: Connect with Tanmaya Kala on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tanmaya-kala-pe-3324a13/ Connect with Jon Wright on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonpwright/ Connect with Kanav Hasija on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/kanavhasija/ Listen to the full podcast on: **Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033OOZ7K5P9aDTX8opEYUo?si=2efcf20614814e44 **Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-punch-list/id6790447693 **YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thepunchlistpod Stay Connected With The Punch List : Website: https://thepunchlistpod.com/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-punchlist-podcast/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/thepunchlistpod/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/thepunchlistpod/ X: https://x.com/thepunchlistpod (00:00) - Intro (01:06) - Copper Price Surge (02:22) - Data Centers Won't Drop Copper (03:59) - Hedging and Contingency (05:31) - Risk and US Copper Supply (06:37) - The Trades Shortage (08:41) - Electrician vs Lawyer (10:03) - Trades for Our Kids? (11:54) - Buy a Trades Business (13:04) - Field Experience Wins (14:18) - Global Labor Gap (15:48) - Office Conversions (18:15) - Four Conversion Hurdles (21:29) - Why Conversions Fail (23:47) - Office Vacancy Trends (26:07) - The New Office Standard (27:15) - Mixed-Use Cities (29:20) - New York's Money Loop (30:20) - Commutes and Housing (31:29) - Factory Construction